4 Lights
4 Lights, Mike Virgilioeconomics | energy | government | lots of charts \ud83d\udcc8
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 90 | Subscribers | Read | 4lights.substack.com |
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③ Bullets
* 🎧 Podcast: Scott Kupor's New Plan to Bring Tech Workers Into the Federal Government | Odd Lots | High-skilled tech workers can earn far more in startups or major AI companies than in government. Scott Kupor, director of the U.S. Office o...
Viral Charts and the Productivity Pay Gap?
If you’re on social media and have any interest in economics, there’s a good chance you’ve seen this chart. A few people have invested time in “debunking” the famous “Productivity Pay Gap” chart for various nitpicky and legitimate reasons1,...
🚀 Wall Street’s 2026 Forecasts: Cautiously Optimistic
The S&P 500 closed out 2025 in good shape — even with the tariff panic crash in the spring. Overall, the index was up about +16% for the year, which is roughly average for the last 10 years of performance.
⬆️ GDP Nowcast: Q4, 2025: +3.0%
Now that government data is flowing again, the GDP model seems to be in better shape. Q3 GDP data came in at +4.3%, and Q4 is shaping up to be pretty solid as well. The government shutdown had the model spooked for a while, but the outlook ...
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economics | energy | government | lots of charts \ud83d\udcc8 ᴠɪᴇᴡꜱ ᴇxᴘʀᴇꜱꜱᴇᴅ ʜᴇʀᴇ ᴀʀᴇ ᴍʏ ᴏᴡɴ ᴀɴᴅ ᴅᴏ ɴᴏᴛ ɴᴇᴄᴇꜱꜱᴀʀɪʟʏ ʀᴇᴘʀᴇꜱᴇɴᴛ ᴛʜᴇ ᴏꜰꜰɪᴄɪᴀʟ ᴏᴘɪɴɪᴏɴꜱ ᴏʀ ᴘᴏʟɪᴄɪᴇꜱ ᴏꜰ ᴍʏ ᴇᴍᴘʟᴏʏᴇʀ
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