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APFX Research

AP Research

Institutional FX and rates research

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Substack
PricingFreemiumPublishesWeekly
Issues84Founded2 years agoLast Issue10 days ago
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Artwork for APFX Research

Latest Issues

The Real Cost of Lula's Victory

Fiscal uncertainty from the surprise Brazil result makes BRL unattractive.

Like many, we were suprised to see Lula secure a record 4th term from the Brazilian elections over the weekend. At the start of the month, we did warn in BRL’s Bols...

10 days ago
2
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The Price of Fiscal Discipline

The UK Budget is skewed towards safety, but a tail risk remains.

We’re just over a week away from a highly anticipated UK Budget from new Chancellor Healey. The surprising lack of leaks in recent weeks makes this the least predictable Budg...

18 days ago
7
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No Rush in Tokyo

October fades as December becomes the next stop for Japanese rates.

At the start of September, we noted in Mission Impossible: Ueda Protocol that the BoJ faced a tough monetary policy position. Specifically, it was that “Ueda must… calibra...

25 days ago
7
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Six Is Still the Number

The US 30-year selloff still has room to run.

On Sept 23rd, we published a slightly controversial trade note entitled The US 30Y Is Heading to 6%, back when it was trading at 5.39%. At the time, we were already hearing chatter from some wh...

a month ago
10
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BRL’s Bolsonaro Boost

Political optionality and strong real yields give plenty to like.

Brazil’s presidential election delivered a major surprise to start the week, with right-wing challenger Bolsonaro outperforming opinion polls to finish ahead of incumbent Lu...

a month ago
7
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    AP Research is an independent cross-asset platform focused on global macro and thematic investing, translating market developments into actionable positioning and asset allocation ideas, expressed both in research and in our own capital.

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