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Institutional FX and rates research

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Latest Issues

No Rush in Tokyo

October fades as December becomes the next stop for Japanese rates.

At the start of September, we noted in Mission Impossible: Ueda Protocol that the BoJ faced a tough monetary policy position. Specifically, it was that “Ueda must… calibra...

4 days ago
3
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Six Is Still the Number

The US 30-year selloff still has room to run.

On Sept 23rd, we published a slightly controversial trade note entitled The US 30Y Is Heading to 6%, back when it was trading at 5.39%. At the time, we were already hearing chatter from some wh...

9 days ago
9
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BRL’s Bolsonaro Boost

Political optionality and strong real yields give plenty to like.

Brazil’s presidential election delivered a major surprise to start the week, with right-wing challenger Bolsonaro outperforming opinion polls to finish ahead of incumbent Lu...

11 days ago
7
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Moving From French Fiscal Risk to ECB Risk

Keeping exposure to second-order consequences.

A month ago, we mused in France’s Fiscal Reckoning why the launch of implausible fixes by Presidential hopefuls would only further add to the risk premium being embedded in French rates both a...

15 days ago
10
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Betting Against the Budget

A month out from the UK Budget, things aren’t looking good.

Our UK 10s30s flattener hit take-profit levels earlier this month, which was initiated in the trade note Trading Burnham’s Britain from mid-August. At that time, we noted the Octo...

19 days ago
9
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  • AP Research

    AP Research is an independent cross-asset platform focused on global macro and thematic investing, translating market developments into actionable positioning and asset allocation ideas, expressed both in research and in our own capital.

  • Global Macro Method

    Former Sell Side, Buy Side and now Family Office and Personal Account Trader. Top down, Bottom up approach with quanta-mental overlay

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