Bhavana
Exploring data science/stats + prediction markets + forecasting. Learning by building, predicting, and writing in public.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 4 | Founded | 4 months ago | Last Issue | 2 months ago |
| Active | |||||
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bhavana512.substack.comLatest Issues
The Market Says 20%. I Think It's Asking the Wrong Question.
Let me tell you about a market I think most people are misreading.
On Manifold, there is an open question: “Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?”. It is currently priced at 20%, meaning the crowd thinks there is roughly a 1-in-5 chance that AI...
What if your AI was quietly making up customer quotes?
You finish a customer call. You finish ten more. Somewhere around call five, names start blurring. Quotes start blending. By the time you’re putting together a board update or an investor pitch, you’re paraphrasing from memory and quietly h...
Prediction Markets Don’t Just Forecast. They Train Forecasters.
Tetlock’s data suggests the strongest predictor of becoming a superforecaster is not intelligence.
It is a habit: continuous updating on small pieces of evidence.
Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my...
I Turned a Churn Classifier Into $144K of Measurable Lift. The Model Wasn't the Hard Part.
I'm a Data Science and Economics student, and I just shipped an end-to-end churn project that I think is worth your seven minutes. Not because the model is novel, but because the decision framework around it is the part most ML projects ski...
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Exploring data science/stats + prediction markets + forecasting. Learning by building, predicting, and writing in public.
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