tril-lion 无限
finding, knowing and analysing the edge.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 18 | Founded | 6 months ago | Last Issue | 3 months ago |
| Active | |||||
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deltaconfidence.substack.comLatest Issues
The Loop
In 1992, John Zaller published a book about how public opinion actually works. His finding was uncomfortable: most people don’t have opinions. They have impressions. When a pollster calls, they don’t retrieve a stable belief from storage. T...
51 Years, 11 Checkpoints
I. The Problem Nobody Talks About
Recessions don’t announce themselves.
They show up in the data months before anyone calls them. Employment softens. Credit tightens. Consumer confidence dips. The signals are there. But by the time the...
When AI Disagrees With Itself
You ask Claude a question. Then you ask GPT the same question. They give you different answers.
What do you do?
If you’re like most people, you pick the one that sounds smarter. Or the one that confirms what you already believed. Or the o...
The Incomplete Agent
$29 billion for Cursor. $9 billion for Replit. $20 billion for Perplexity. $10 billion for Cognition.
Add it up and you’re looking at nearly $70 billion in combined valuation across four companies that run the same architecture: user promp...
The Kalman Economy
You ask an AI to model the economy. It gives you a clean answer. “55% chance of soft landing, 25% recession, 20% re-acceleration.” Scenarios branch. Trade ideas follow. It feels like insight.
Then next week happens.
CPI comes in hot. Empl...
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