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Dr. Kai Jäger's Newsletter

Kai Jäger

Academia, Politics, and more

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Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesWeekly
Issues13Founded4 years agoLast Issue2 years ago
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Latest Issues

Non-Stop Winning for the Trump Model

It happened again: For the third consecutive time, polls underestimated Donald Trump. However, unlike in 2016 and 2020, the deviation was smaller this time and often within the margin of error. Prediction models viewed the race as a coin to...

2 years ago

The final prediction for the US election

Without further ado, here are the results from the prediction models for the U.S. Presidential election:

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The model based on high-quality polls indicates that Harris has a 61.5% chance of winning the presidency. She is favored in the...

2 years ago
2

Decision Day for the Musk Model

One Day to Go: We’re one day away from an election that’s a complete toss-up according to several prediction models. The usual polarization and differences between the candidates are clear, but this election is also a test of the Musk Model...

2 years ago

Prediction Update and a New Model: Using Only Pro-Trump Partisan Polls

(Update November 5, 2024: The final model predictions are here)

Last week, I introduced a prediction model for the U.S. Presidential election based solely on high-quality polls, following claims from Democrats that pro-Trump pollsters were...

2 years ago
3
1

Predicting the U.S. Presidential Election Using Only 'High-Quality' Polls and a Pro-Trump Midwest Bias

(Update November 5, 2024: The final model predictions are here)

The quality of polling has become a contested issue since 2016, after Donald Trump won the Presidency against all odds. In 2020, Trump again performed better than predicted by...

2 years ago

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  • Kai Jäger

    Former Associate Professor in Political Economy at King's College London. Speaking truth to power in academia and politics. More to come...

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