Dr. Kai Jäger's Newsletter
Kai JägerAcademia, Politics, and more
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 13 | Subscribers | Read | kaijaeger.substack.com |
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Latest Issues
Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.
Non-Stop Winning for the Trump Model
It happened again: For the third consecutive time, polls underestimated Donald Trump. However, unlike in 2016 and 2020, the deviation was smaller this time and often within the margin of error. Prediction models viewed the race as a coin to...
The final prediction for the US election
Without further ado, here are the results from the prediction models for the U.S. Presidential election:
Decision Day for the Musk Model
One Day to Go: We’re one day away from an election that’s a complete toss-up according to several prediction models. The usual polarization and differences between the candidates are clear, but this election is also a test of the Musk Model...
Prediction Update and a New Model: Using Only Pro-Trump Partisan Polls
(Update November 5, 2024: The final model predictions are here)
Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Former Associate Professor in Political Economy at King's College London. Speaking truth to power in academia and politics. More to come...
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