Elections Etc
Stephen FisherElection forecasting and public opinion commentary from Stephen Fisher @stevefisher.bsky.social. Posts here are also at ElectionEtc.com, where you can find full archive.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 18 | Subscribers | Read | electionsetc.substack.com |
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Latest Issues
Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.
Local election seat projections for 2026
(Originally published 25 March 2026, updated 2 April to correct a sentence in the rationale for the equal projected seat loss rates for the Conservatives and Labour. No change to the projected net gains and losses.)
Benchmarks for Reform seat gains at the 2026 English local elections
What follows is not a forecast, but an analysis showing that Reform UK need to make at least +2050 net seat gains in the English local elections to show they are still performing as well as they did at last year’s local elections and +1935 ...
Things continue to go badly for Labour
Yesterday Labour lost the Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election. This was a constituency were they took 50.8% of the vote at the 2024 general election and an estimated 67.2% in 2019.
Local elections 2025 summary
By Stephen Fisher, 2nd May 2025 (sorry for the delay in posting here).
Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Professor of Political Sociology, Trinity College, University of Oxford.
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