How housing costs got here and where they're going.
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Housing Cost Trends: 4 cities
I am seeing recent stories about a hot housing market in San Francisco, generally in the form of reports like especially expensive homes selling for far above asking. Oddly, this isn’t showing up in Zillow estimates. There are also reports...
Cyclical Construction and Gluts
There are at least two ways to compare housing supply over time. You can make a ratio with new homes in the numerator and you can either put total population level or population growth in the denominator. Since 2008, new homes per populatio...
The Keynes and Hayek Rap Battle, in Hindsight
If you are any kind of econ nerd, you are probably familiar with Russ Roberts’ widely viewed “Fear the Boom and Bust: Keynes vs. Hayek” video. It was a nice introduction to some of the broad macroeconomic debates about cyclical management....
Home affordability math isn't mathing
A popular trope among housing analysts is to perform a sort of DuPont Analysis for housing.
A popular trope among housing analysts is to perform a sort of DuPont Analysis for housing. It seems like basic math: Housing is too expensive. Som...
A brief review and forecast of supply-denialism
Supply-crisis deniers, and even some housing advocates, make a number of claims, including:
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Homes are expensive in some cities because incomes in those cities are high.
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Home price appreciation has been especially high because of...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
I discovered a new framework for understanding the housing bubble, the financial crisis, and costly housing markets. And, I have developed a novel framework for estimating the effects of supply constraints vs changing demand on home prices.
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