How housing costs got here and where they're going.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 636 | Founded | 4 years ago | Last Issue | 5 days ago |
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Mismeasuring the Affordability Problem
I occasionally get my ire up about someone posting a chart of mortgage affordability, where they will usually use market mortgage rates, median household income and some estimate of the typical home price over time, and they will claim that...
In our odd era, yes, supply is what matters.
Charles Marohn at Strong Towns wrote a post the other day throwing cold water on the idea that Austin’s recent rent reductions are a sure sign of a housing supply success story. I find the piece odd, because I’m not sure there is any supply...
Another estimate of the housing shortage
Ryan Moultan posted an interesting chart at BlueSky of housing inventory. He added up all US adults 25 and over and subtracted the number of married couples to get an estimate of the number of adults who would potentially head a household....
June 2026 Residential Home Sales
The long boring recovery continues.
The long boring recovery continues. Inventory of new homes for sale remained near cycle highs, producing helpful counterparties for those of us who are positioned for flat or growing construction trends....
June 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
More sideways markets.
More sideways markets. Boring recovery, etc.
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
I discovered a new framework for understanding the housing bubble, the financial crisis, and costly housing markets. And, I have developed a novel framework for estimating the effects of supply constraints vs changing demand on home prices.
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