Fed Watch Advisors Notes
Ben EmonsDaily commentaries about markets, macro, Fed, data, earnings, stocks & bonds, politics and crypto.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 47 | Subscribers | Read | benemons.substack.com |
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Latest Issues
Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.
Jobless Claims Sahm Rule
Since late April, jobless claims have suddenly gained momentum. The S&P, however, did not “peak” until the week of mid-July, when claims hit a one-year high. Since then, markets have increasingly viewed job data as a significant risk event,...
The VIX Bubble
It took divine intervention from the Bank of Japan, not the Fed, to get markets to settle down. The BOJ’s surprise hike may have been the ‘mistake’ rather than the Fed being behind the curve.
The Yen Put
The overnight news that Japanese officials are meeting to “discuss the Yen” indicates how this liquidity crisis will play out. The Yen at the center of gravity determines how many rate cuts will be left priced in after the dust settles.
Testing the Fed
The third leg of the Yen-carry trade is here, with the VIX breaking 50 and the Nasdaq at a 15% drawdown. The Yen and the big-Tech index are intricately linked; the Japanese currency movement implies the Nasdaq drawdown of over 20% (Figure 1...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Ben Emons is the Founder of Fed Watch Advisors, a quantitative project about central bank investing.
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