Forecasting Research Institute
Forecasting Research InstituteUsing the science of forecasting to improve decision-making on high-stake issues
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Monthly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 3 | Subscribers | Read | forecastingresearch.substack.com |
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Latest Issues
Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.
What did forecasters get right and wrong in the largest existential risk forecasting tournament?
In 2022, the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT) brought together 169 domain experts and superforecasters to gather predictions on a range of short-, medium-, and long-run questions related to threats facing humanity, including ris...
Forecasting biosecurity risks from large language models and the efficacy of safeguards
We just released the largest-ever study of expert views on how LLMs might enable bioweapon use. We elicited forecasts from 46 experts in biosecurity and biology research as well as 22 top generalist forecasters and asked them to predict the...
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Advancing the science of forecasting for the public good.
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