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Globicus Outlook

Hans Nilsson

Welcome to Globicus, your premier destination for in-depth analysis and accurate predictions on the global economy and potential recessions.

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Latest Issues

Navigating Monetary Policy through r*

This section examines the concept of the natural rate of interest (r*), a central benchmark for assessing the stance of U.S. monetary policy. By comparing the real federal funds rate to r*, we can identify periods of restrictive, neutral, o...

3 months ago

Continued Economic Expansion 2026

Globicus Outlook: US Economic and Monetary Policy Brief – February 2026

The United States economy continues to expand, supported by positive momentum across the Globicus Leading Economic Indexes (Total, Long, and Short). Recent readin...

3 months ago

What Should Be Done?

Policy Prioritization and the Federal Reserve’s Dual Mandate

  1. The Federal Reserve’s Dual Mandate and Policy Prioritization
7 months ago
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Globicus Leading Economic Indexes

1. Executive Summary

Globicus' Leading Economic Indexes are designed to anticipate turning points in the business cycle, and the latest readings indicate signs of economic deceleration. After showing solid momentum at the end of 2024, t...

a year ago

US Expansion Continues

Globicus Leading Economic Index

Outlook January 2025

Hans’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

US Expansion Continues

Globicus Inc...

a year ago

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