Jonathan's Substack
Jonathan HershaffMy personal Substack
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 13 | Subscribers | Read | whatstheimpact.substack.com |
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Latest Issues
Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.
The False Positive Trap: The Dark Side of Bayesian A/B Testing
In my last post on Surviving the “Haircut”, I explored how Bayesian A/B testing handles corporate conservatism. The simulation showed that you can apply a massive 50% “haircut” to your historical data and still beat a standard Frequentist t...
Surviving the “Haircut”: Why Bayesian A/B Testing Beats Conservatism
Does switching to Bayesian A/B testing actually change “ship vs. no-ship” decisions? To find out, I simulated a realistic low-traffic experiment. The results revealed a surprising insight into how Bayesian models survive conservative busine...
Don’t Trust the Closed-Form: Sizing Switchback Experiments with Permutation Tests
If you operate in a rigid marketplace environment like Amazon, standard user-level A/B testing is infeasible. You cannot randomize bids at the individual user level; every customer searching a specific keyword sees the exact same auction re...
Slashing Amazon Ad Spend by 69%: Automating a Switchback Experiment to Find the Optimal Bid Size
If you work in marketing data science, you know the frustration of “walled garden” attribution. Whether you are running sponsored campaigns on Amazon, bidding on brand terms in Google Search, or running conversion ads on Meta, the platforms...
Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Senior Data Scientist at Airbnb specializing in experimentation and causal inference. Coaches data scientists from Junior to Staff level on technical interviews and career strategy, with clients at Meta, Google, Uber, Airbnb, and more.
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