Louis’s Substack
Louis D FinneyMy personal Substack
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 34 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 3 months ago |
| Active | |||||
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louisdfinney.substack.comLatest Issues
The Investor Spectrum: Return and risk for the next ten years
From reserve funds to levered ETFs, I estimate expected returns and risks across a wide range of portfolios. Overall, 10-year capital market returns for diversified investors appear broadly consistent with equilibrium theory.
With December...
Space Notes: The NASA Science Budget and Space Telescopes
NASA’s Science Budget
Throughout 2025, things looked grim for NASA, especially the science side. In May, the Administration proposed a shocking 47% cut in the science budget from $7.3 billion to $3.9 billion. The agency lost roughly 20% of...
Expected Capital Market Returns: January 2026
I estimate expected capital market returns for the next ten years based on December 2025 data.
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Summary
- The largest change over the past...
The Capital Markets, Big and Small
I estimate the size of the investable capital markets as of December 2025 at $244 trillion about $10 trillion larger than the figure I reported a year ago. I’ve added several smaller asset classes and changed sources in a few cases, so the...
Illiquidity and Expected Return
Investors should be rewarded for taking on illiquidity risks. It is a standard risk factor in many capital market models. However, realizing this premium requires that the other side delivers it. In practice, this illiquidity premium is typ...
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