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Macro Notes

Noah Zelvis

Latest macroeconomic trends, market-moving news, and key indicators to watch.

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Latest Issues

The Treasury Just Doubled Its Buyback Firepower And Every Duration Trade Changes

The biggest macro intervention of the year landed this week, and it rewrote the setup for bonds, the dollar, and hard assets in one move. If your book is still leaning on the same names that carried you through spring, you have a rotation w...

23 hours ago

Diesel Margins Just Took the Wheel from Crude

The Fed hasn't cut once this year. Who cares? Somebody in Washington moved the market on Tuesday afternoon anyway, and the fingerprints lead straight back to Treasury. Long yields dropped. Gold broke out. Rate-sensitive equities caught a bi...

45 hours ago

Treasury Just Fired A Warning Shot, and Silver Is The Trade You Missed On Gold

Fiscal policy is doing monetary policy's job, and you can see it in the dollar, the long end, and every hard asset on the board.

Meanwhile, a three-session chip unwind is forcing a defensive rotation you cannot ignore, and a Friday tariff...

3 days ago

The Twin Surge Squeezing Every Portfolio Right Now

30-year hangs at 5.29%, within a whisker of its highest level since 2007. WTI sits around $84 after a nasty multi-week grind. These aren't two stories. It's one story playing out in two markets.

Energy supply is tight. Inflation's gone st...

4 days ago

The Fed Pause Just Rewired Every Macro Trade on Your Screen

September hike odds just collapsed to 25%, and the repricing is bleeding into currencies, metals, and the long end of the curve.

This week's Fed minutes, flash PMIs, and a consumer bellwether's guidance will decide whether the pause trade...

6 days ago

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