Pascal’s Newsletter
Pascal MichaillatUpdates on my research, teaching, and other projects. 1–2 posts per month.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 42 | Subscribers | Read | pmichaillat.substack.com |
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Latest Issues
Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.
October Labor-Market Update
Main message: US labor-market tightness fell slightly to 1.07 in October 2024. So the US labor market is extremely close to full employment. The probability that the US economy is in recession fell further to 26%.
September Labor-Market Update
Main message: US labor-market tightness rose slightly to 1.16 in September 2024. So US the labor market is still inefficiently tight. The probability that the US economy is in recession fell down to 36%.
August Labor-Market Update
Main message: US labor-market tightness falls slightly to 1.08 in August 2024. The US labor market is now cooler than in 2019, and is getting ever closer to full employment. The probability that the US economy is in recession creeps up to 4...
So has the recession already started?
So has the recession started in the US?
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Associate professor of economics at UC Santa Cruz
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