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PROPHET NOTES

Mike S.
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Join PROPHET NOTES to get reliable and straight to the point commentary on global events with skin in the game.

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Issues262Founded3 years agoLast Issue10 days ago
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Latest Issues

Global Outlook: Lula Wins?!

Welcome to another week! For the new readers: every week I comment on the top prediction markets—selected by volume, volatility and surprising resolutions—across (geo)politics, elections, macro, tech and science. Markets first, news through...

10 days ago
5

Forecast Update: Brazil Presidential Election & Midterms

Situation Monitor #19: 10/24/2026 Weekly Forecast Update

I’m back with the forecast updates after a brief hiatus. With 10 days to midterms, there’s plenty to cover, and there will be more. Starting next week I’ll try to have daily updates....

12 days ago
1
Paid

Introducing OMEN: 2026 Midterms Forecast

Blue Wave, Blue Tsunami, or just a mirage?

Creating a model of US elections is a nightmare, you know? In these midterms alone, we have 506 individual races. Apart from the governor races, they all add up to Senate and House control. There...

15 days ago
4
Paid

Global Outlook: Blue Wave

Welcome to another week! For the new readers: every week I comment on the top prediction markets—selected by volume, volatility and surprising resolutions—across (geo)politics, elections, macro, tech and science. Markets first, news through...

17 days ago
5

Global Outlook: South America Loves The Right-Wing

Welcome to another week! For the new readers: every week I comment on the top prediction markets—selected by volume, volatility and surprising resolutions—across (geo)politics, elections, macro, tech and science. Markets first, news through...

a month ago
5

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  • Mike S.

    I’m on a mission to change the way you understand the news | 884% Return on Polymarket in 2Y | Geopolitics | Economy | Your favorite whale is trading on my research

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