CONVEXTA
Alfred MarshallMacro research with skin in the game
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 26 | Founded | 8 months ago | Last Issue | 3 months ago |
| Active | |||||
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convexta.substack.comLatest Issues
Position Sizing in Directional Macro: A Practitioner’s Primer
Executive Summary
- Risk is the speed limit in directional macro. Forecasts about growth vs inflation, policy, flows, and catalysts are necessary to generate edge, but they are not what determines survival. Expected returns tend to evo...
Protecting the Edge: A Tactical De-Gross
Executive Summary
- Risk first, not a thesis change. After a strong start (+20% since launch), the first meaningful stress test hit: the portfolio fell -8.9% on the week, with outsized intraday swings as vol-of-vol and correlations spi...
A Blockbuster January and Cracks in the Goldilocks Narrative
Executive Summary
- In a blockbuster January, the model delivered +5.6% in a single month at 9.6% annualised vol, with all three themes contributing positively (Fundamental/Technical/Risk Premia). Cross-asset P&L benefited from risk-on...
Embracing the Widowmaker
Executive Summary
- I increased my short 10-year JGB exposure from -53% to -98% on Friday because I see Japan transitioning from policy-anchored yields to renewed price discovery, reinforced by wage-driven inflation dynamics and a more...
Three Months In: Strong Start. Bar Raised.
Executive Summary
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Strong start, with room for improvement: My portfolio returned +24.1% in the first three months - a very strong start. However, it underperformed “model” return from published weekly closes.
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Process upgrades al...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Macro research with skin in the game. Alfred Marshall is a pen name.
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