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The Monetary Commentary

Monetary Commentary

Macro/markets/economic history

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Latest Issues

Revisiting my Blend Labs bull thesis

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Could be setting up for descending triangle breakout

Blend Labs is currently the only stock I own—and it has not treated me kindly.

My average price is $2.65 per share, leaving me down roughly 33%. With the stock around $1....

4 days ago
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Recession files (part 18): the Roaring Twenties pause

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The 1923-24 recession is the one that keeps the Roaring Twenties honest.

The decade is usually remembered as a clean boom between the postwar deflation bust and the Great Depression. The actual cycle was messier. After the M...

6 days ago
18
2

Recession files (part 17): the Great Deflation bust

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The 1920-21 recession was a price-level earthquake.

The who was the postwar U.S. economy: factories, farms, merchants, workers, banks, and a young Federal Reserve still learning what it meant to fight inflation.

The what w...

9 days ago
28

Recession files (part 16): the Armistice snapback

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The recession of 1918-19 was short, but the timing is everything.

It began after the August 1918 business-cycle peak, while the U.S. was still mobilized for World War I. Then, on November 11, the Armistice arrived. War produ...

14 days ago
26
1

Recession files (part 15): the Fed is born into recession

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The Federal Reserve was born during a recession.

The downturn began after the January 1913 business-cycle peak, nearly a full year before Woodrow Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act on December 23, 1913. That timing matter...

19 days ago
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  • Monetary Commentary

    Very good macro charts and historical insights | Over a decade deep in economics and financial markets | Not advice

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