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The Monetary Commentary

Monetary Commentary

Macro/markets/economic history

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Latest Issues

Every time the bond market revolted

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There is a peculiar relationship between Washington and the bond market. The federal government can borrow trillions of dollars, while the Federal Reserve can influence the cost of money. Both institutions possess enormous po...

19 days ago
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4

I charted every U.S. recession since 1857

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I’ve spent months rebuilding every U.S. recession as far back as the data will reasonably take us.

Thirty-four recessions. Panic-era America. The Civil War. The gold standard. The creation of the Federal Reserve. Two world w...

2 months ago
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Recession files (part 20): when recession became depression

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Industrial production’s annual average fell nearly 46% from 1929 to 1932. Over the same period, bank suspensions surged from 659 in 1929 to 1,350 in 1930 and 2,293 in 1931, before the banking system’s final breakdown pushed t...

3 months ago
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1

The Facebook blueprint for SpaceX

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The early trading histories of Facebook and SpaceX could hardly look more different—until you zoom out.

I indexed both stocks to 100 at their first public close and aligned them by trading session. Facebook immediately unrav...

3 months ago
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Recession files (part 19): did Ford cause the recession?

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Could Henry Ford have caused a U.S. recession?

In 1927, the question was not ridiculous. Ford was among the largest industrial companies in the world, and the Model T sat at the center of a vast network of workers, steelmake...

3 months ago
26

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