The Monetary Commentary
Monetary CommentaryMacroeconomics, financial markets, econ history. Powered by AI and human insight.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 162 | Founded | 10 months ago | Last Issue | 8 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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monetarycommentary.substack.comLatest Issues
When Washington accidentally slammed the consumer-credit brake
The 1980 credit-control shock was a rare case where Washington attacked inflation by choking the quantity of credit directly. Consumer credit growth flipped from expansion to contraction within months, with revolving credit hit hardest beca...
Friendshoring has an inflation leak
The Fed’s problem is that the goods channel is losing its old deflationary bias.
For two decades, China acted like an external margin compressor for U.S. consumers, pushing tradable-goods inflation lower whenever domestic demand softened....
The mortgage shrinkflation era
Housing affordability in the U.S. has become shrinkflation with a mortgage attached. Builders can trim square footage to protect the monthly payment illusion, but the clearing price of actual shelter capacity has reset violently higher.
T...
U.S. household carry trade is a hidden wage-cycle force
The rate shock rebuilt a household coupon channel, but its macro power is already fading. March net personal interest income was roughly $1.41 trillion annualized, equal to about 10.5% of wage and salary disbursements, with fed funds at 3.6...
Buffett Indicator defies real-rate gravity
This chart shows an equity-duration regime break.
In 2020-21, extreme market-cap-to-GDP could lean on negative real yields. By late 2025, though, the same valuation structure is sitting against a roughly 2% 10-year real Treasury yield, su...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Very good macro charts and actionable insights using public data. Not financial advice. Not a PhD economist. Not your quant
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