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The Monetary Commentary

Monetary Commentary

Macroeconomics, financial markets, econ history. Powered by AI and human insight.

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Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesDaily
Issues158SubscribersRead monetarycommentary.substack.com

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Latest Issues

Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.

Buffett Indicator defies real-rate gravity

This chart shows an equity-duration regime break.

5 days ago
71
1

Banks still carry 2023’s funding scar

Deposit beta is now a memory variable. The 2023 banking shock taught depositors that idle cash had an opportunity cost, and banks never fully got the old franchise value back.

9 days ago
60
1

Markets running on one leg

Semis have stopped confirming credit and started overriding it.

11 days ago
52
3

Credit card stress has moved beyond the Fed

The spread between average credit card APRs and the effective fed funds rate has blown out to the widest level in the series, meaning revolving consumer credit is no longer moving as a simple pass-through of monetary policy.

20 days ago
79
8

Authors

The writers behind this newsletter.

  • Monetary Commentary

    Very good macro charts and insights using public data. Not financial advice. Not a PhD economist. Not your quant

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