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The Monetary Commentary

Monetary Commentary

Macro/markets/economic history

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Latest Issues

Recession files (part 20): when recession became depression

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Industrial production’s annual average fell nearly 46% from 1929 to 1932. Over the same period, bank suspensions surged from 659 in 1929 to 1,350 in 1930 and 2,293 in 1931, before the banking system’s final breakdown pushed t...

19 days ago
27
1

The Facebook blueprint for SpaceX

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The early trading histories of Facebook and SpaceX could hardly look more different—until you zoom out.

I indexed both stocks to 100 at their first public close and aligned them by trading session. Facebook immediately unrav...

20 days ago
30
12

Recession files (part 19): did Ford cause the recession?

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Could Henry Ford have caused a U.S. recession?

In 1927, the question was not ridiculous. Ford was among the largest industrial companies in the world, and the Model T sat at the center of a vast network of workers, steelmake...

21 days ago
22

Revisiting my Blend Labs bull thesis

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Could be setting up for descending triangle breakout

Blend Labs is currently the only stock I own—and it has not treated me kindly.

My average price is $2.65 per share, leaving me down roughly 33%. With the stock around $1....

a month ago
41
2

Recession files (part 18): the Roaring Twenties pause

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The 1923-24 recession is the one that keeps the Roaring Twenties honest.

The decade is usually remembered as a clean boom between the postwar deflation bust and the Great Depression. The actual cycle was messier. After the M...

a month ago
19
2

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  • Monetary Commentary

    Very good macro charts and historical insights | Over a decade deep in economics and financial markets | Not advice

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