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The Monetary Commentary

Monetary Commentary

Monetary plumbing, macroeconomics, financial markets. Powered by AI and human intelligence.

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Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesDaily
Issues130SubscribersRead monetarycommentary.substack.com

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Latest Issues

Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.

Spread of the Day, 3/17/26: DAL - USO

Crude rose again as the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption kept inflation risk front and center ahead of the Fed, yet the standout leadership came from airlines and travel.

5 days ago
7
3

2008 isn’t back — but credit just flinched

Credit is not yet confirming a systemic message. Real stress begins when the lowest-quality spread starts widening on its own logic and keeps widening after equities stabilize, because that usually signals refinancing capacity is deteriorat...

6 days ago
29
0

Spread of the Day, 3/16/26: SMH - USO

Today’s tape was a rotation out of war-panic oil and back into AI beta. Crude fell hard as traders latched onto signs that the Hormuz shock might become more manageable, while AI-linked equities led the rebound and pulled the broader market...

6 days ago
25
2

When banks crack before junk does

Banks (XLF) versus the broad market (SPY) only really breaks hard when credit stops being repricable and starts becoming suspect collateral in investors’ minds.

8 days ago
31
0

Authors

The writers behind this newsletter.

  • Monetary Commentary

    Very good macro charts, spreads and insights using public data. Not financial advice. Not a PhD economist. Not your quant

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