A journey through the oil markets from the physical perspective. We take a look at barrels moving
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How high can freight go?
Another week and oil stuck at 100, by now it looks more like a logistics crisis, on top of a middle distillates refining crisis, rather than an “oil crisis”, and I say that from the comfort of 14/15 million barrels...
Mexican Standoff
Who releases first?
So we are stuck in the 100s; neither the promises of kinetic action, nor the “back to pre-war levels” talk can break the cycle. Even the most volatile portion of the oil complex (refined products) seems contained with c...
Populism at the Pump
Is an diesel ban even possible?
Ok, I’ll play… let’s say the US bans diesel exports for 90 days, but before going to the implications let’s rewind a little bit and go a few weeks in time. The conversation surfaced once again some months ag...
When Models Fail
Unchartered waters
This week the colorful note was a major bank admitting defeat and giving up on “modelling” the oil markets, I won’t mock them because I gave up years ago but it got me thinking if they found the same pitfalls I encounter...
Turning the Screw
Betting against the house?
A ragtag bunch we left for dead in the Gulf of Aden, a collection of rusted-out distillation towers in northern China, $10bn of value transferred to oil marketers, shipowners and insurers in just one week. All of...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
I used to move barrels for a living
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