Tiger Polymarket Prediction
A Princetonian polymarket prediction team, transfer event uncertainty to tradable probabilities Daily:short-term trade setup（sports, news, crypto, weather…) if ∃ Weekly:long-term trade setup（politics, macro, structural theme...)+auto-trade algorithm
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 156 | Founded | 5 months ago | Last Issue | 7 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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tigerpolymarketprediction.substack....Latest Issues
Meta Muse Glimmer Local Agents – On-Device Open Weight Underpriced
The market underprices the shift toward capable open-weight models that run full agentic workflows on a single consumer GPU.
The Setup
Meta released Muse Glimmer, a 30-billion-parameter open-weight model under Apache 2.0. It is distilled...
AI Flies Live F-16 Intercepts – Military Autonomy Underpriced
The market underprices the real-world progress of military AI autonomy after an AI agent completed live tactical intercepts in a modified F-16 without human control.
The Setup
Lockheed Martin Skunk Works and the US Air Force Test Pilot Sc...
Weekly Algorithm: Executable vs Payoff Arbitrage: Why Polymarket’s NegRisk Adapter Creates One-Sided Edges
By Tiger Polymarket Prediction
August 9, 2026
This week’s most precise microstructure paper is “Executable Arbitrage and Market Efficiency in Prediction Markets” (arXiv:2608.00666, 1 August 2026) by Jonas Gebele, Timm Mutzel, and Florian...
OpenAI Pauses Astra – Critical Cyber Threshold Underpriced
The market underprices the signal that OpenAI has paused work on its next major model after internal evaluations flagged autonomous cyber capabilities.
The Setup
OpenAI has halted certain development phases of Astra. Internal red-teaming...
AI Designs First Viable Viruses – Bio-Risk Window Underpriced
The market underprices the dual-use and regulatory response risk after generative AI produced the first fully functional viruses.
The Setup
Stanford and Arc Institute researchers used genome language models Evo 1 and Evo 2 to design bacte...
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A Princetonian polymarket prediction team, transfer event uncertainty to tradable probabilities Daily:short-term trade setup（sports, news, crypto, weather…) if ∃ Weekly:long-term trade setup（politics, macro, structural theme...)+auto-trade algorithm
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