
My personal Substack
| Platform | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 115 | Founded | a year ago | Last Issue | 11 days ago |
| Active | Language | ||||

大部分的人在做財報分析時,習慣在同一張報表裡找答案。但有些生意必須跨出那張報表,才能看得懂它是怎麼拼起來的。
無論用量化模型篩選,還是自己做基本面分析,如果只按 ROIC 高低替公司排名,但沒有理解報酬從哪裡來,就很可能把過去的高報酬當成未來也能持續的證據。尤其當公司的高 ROIC 是仰賴合作夥伴持有必要資產時,我們還得看看對方的帳才能做出正確的判斷。
幾個月前我們寫過萬豪這個飯店集團。1993 年,萬豪把自己切成兩家公司。
分拆出去的 Marriott Interna...
幾天前跟朋友喝咖啡,聊到命理師這個職業。
命理師沒有看得見的產品,也不需要庫存。正常來說,他替人算一次命、收一次錢。但如果進入官員與商人的圈子,他還可能同時成為情報站與傳話人,最後把自己與權力的距離變成錢。
那場對話結束之後我才想到,這跟我過去十多年在做的事是同一個問題。由於主要看的是中國市場,每次在分析不同公司的一些特殊交易時,我都要判斷的是這些交易的價格裡有多少來自資產本身、有多少來自交易雙方的關係、或是背後那股看不清楚的力量。
裁量權不能開發票,所以得替那筆錢找個...
(友情提示:這篇文章比平常更長,閱讀時間可能超過 30 分鐘)
因為女兒的關係,這次法國行讓我第一次認識 Jellycat。第一次仔細看它時,我腦中冒出的問題其實「很沒有品味」:這跟 IKEA 賣的玩偶到底有什麼不同?
對我來說兩者都蠻柔軟,主要材質都是聚酯纖維,IKEA 的玩偶也有一些讓人記得住的設計。即使實際接觸後能感覺 Jellycat 的手感與做工更細緻,但如果把品牌標籤遮起來,光憑外觀,我還真的沒有把握每次都能準確分出一隻售價台幣一千多元的 Jellycat,和...
終於過完暑假了。
對家有國小、國中生的家庭來說,寒暑假總會帶來一些麻煩,只是每個家庭面對的問題並不相同。有些父母煩惱孩子由誰照顧,有些人得在工作時間和安親費用之間取捨。像我們這種已經有基本安排、還能繼續比較營隊和課程的家庭,煩惱的則是要不要再多加一項。
在我們家,寒暑假的活動主要由媽媽安排,我比較像是參與討論、最後負責「付清」的角色。隨著孩子年紀漸長,我很明顯地感覺到身邊家長的焦慮也在增加。而針對這些焦慮,市面上出現了更多不同類型的選擇。
暑假前,我聽太太說過那種讓國小...
每隔一陣子,市場就會出現一波 AI 泡沫論。而最近幾次擔心的焦點已經慢慢從技術移到金融。
大家除了問模型還能進步多少,也開始追問:這麼多資料中心、晶片與電力建設,最後到底由誰付錢?當 Nvidia 投資模型公司,模型公司拿錢租用雲端算力,雲端業者再向 Nvidia 採購晶片,這種循環融資到底代表需求強勁,還是供應商拿自己的錢替自己創造營收?
而且現在的結構變得愈來愈複雜。上週 Nvidia 與 Apollo、BlackRock、Blackstone、Brookfield、...
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The writers behind this newsletter.
* Ex buy-side analysts, specialized in healthcare industry research (Clairvoyance Capital; JP Morgan Asset Management) * Professor of Practice, National Taiwan University * Associate Professor of Practice, Chang Gung University
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