Vincent’s Substack
Vincent Cheng-Wen Yu 余鎮文My personal Substack
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 113 | Founded | a year ago | Last Issue | 6 days ago |
| Active | Language |  ZH-TW | |||
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vincentcwyu.substack.comLatest Issues
Jellycat：一門好到讓我不敢直接下結論的生意
（友情提示：這篇文章比平常更長，閱讀時間可能超過 30 分鐘）
因為女兒的關係，這次法國行讓我第一次認識 Jellycat。第一次仔細看它時，我腦中冒出的問題其實「很沒有品味」：這跟 IKEA 賣的玩偶到底有什麼不同？
對我來說兩者都蠻柔軟，主要材質都是聚酯纖維，IKEA 的玩偶也有一些讓人記得住的設計。即使實際接觸後能感覺 Jellycat 的手感與做工更細緻，但如果把品牌標籤遮起來，光憑外觀，我還真的沒有把握每次都能準確分出一隻售價台幣一千多元的 Jellycat，和...
沒有收據的東西，也要先編預算：一堂課的真正成本，是錢、孩子的時間，還有關係摩擦
終於過完暑假了。
對家有國小、國中生的家庭來說，寒暑假總會帶來一些麻煩，只是每個家庭面對的問題並不相同。有些父母煩惱孩子由誰照顧，有些人得在工作時間和安親費用之間取捨。像我們這種已經有基本安排、還能繼續比較營隊和課程的家庭，煩惱的則是要不要再多加一項。
在我們家，寒暑假的活動主要由媽媽安排，我比較像是參與討論、最後負責「付清」的角色。隨著孩子年紀漸長，我很明顯地感覺到身邊家長的焦慮也在增加。而針對這些焦慮，市面上出現了更多不同類型的選擇。
暑假前，我聽太太說過那種讓國小...
Nvidia 開始替客戶寫保單：一家賣鏟子的公司，正在變成什麼？
每隔一陣子，市場就會出現一波 AI 泡沫論。而最近幾次擔心的焦點已經慢慢從技術移到金融。
大家除了問模型還能進步多少，也開始追問：這麼多資料中心、晶片與電力建設，最後到底由誰付錢？當 Nvidia 投資模型公司，模型公司拿錢租用雲端算力，雲端業者再向 Nvidia 採購晶片，這種循環融資到底代表需求強勁，還是供應商拿自己的錢替自己創造營收？
而且現在的結構變得愈來愈複雜。上週 Nvidia 與 Apollo、BlackRock、Blackstone、Brookfield、...
Mentorship 如何開始：讓第一次的十五分鐘，變成下一次的一小時
過去無論是在曼報 Pro 的線下活動，或回學校社團演講，我經常被問到同一個問題：怎麼找到一位好的 mentor？（這個問題曼尼上週也寫過一篇，推薦大家去看）
我先講一個多數人可能不愛聽的答案。
根據我自己的觀察，影響一個人能否取得好的 mentorship 機會，最大的變數往往是他每週能和多少資深工作者發生低成本接觸。這個數字跟他所在的組織、城市與產業高度相關。提問技巧和事前準備當然有用，但多半是在既有機會上提高轉換率，很難完全補上結構造成的差距。
換句話說，先有接觸，...
高 ROIC 能撐多久？用四個檢查點檢視持續期
當兩家公司當期 ROIC 同樣是 20% 時，為什麼市場願意給的估值倍數可以差上三倍？
其中很大一部分差異，來自市場對兩件事的判斷：這個報酬水準還能維持多少年，以及公司還能用相近的報酬率投入多少新增資本。
平常我會把 ROIC 拆成營業利益率乘上投入資本周轉率。這兩個數字可以相對容易地從財報估算，也是我最常拿來做同業與跨產業比較的指標。哪些公司的利益率比較高、資產負債表比較「輕」，通常比持續期容易觀察，也更容易反映在市場價格裡。
但持續期的來源很少直接出現在財報上。這也...
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Authors
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* Ex buy-side analysts, specialized in healthcare industry research (Clairvoyance Capital; JP Morgan Asset Management) * Professor of Practice, National Taiwan University * Associate Professor of Practice, Chang Gung University
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