Vincent’s Substack
Vincent Cheng-Wen Yu 余鎮文My personal Substack
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 109 | Founded | a year ago | Last Issue | 12 days ago |
| Active | Language |  Korean | |||
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vincentcwyu.substack.comLatest Issues
高 ROIC 能撐多久？用四個檢查點檢視持續期
當兩家公司當期 ROIC 同樣是 20% 時，為什麼市場願意給的估值倍數可以差上三倍？
其中很大一部分差異，來自市場對兩件事的判斷：這個報酬水準還能維持多少年，以及公司還能用相近的報酬率投入多少新增資本。
平常我會把 ROIC 拆成營業利益率乘上投入資本周轉率。這兩個數字可以相對容易地從財報估算，也是我最常拿來做同業與跨產業比較的指標。哪些公司的利益率比較高、資產負債表比較「輕」，通常比持續期容易觀察，也更容易反映在市場價格裡。
但持續期的來源很少直接出現在財報上。這也...
這次不一樣：怎麼判斷一段規律正在失效
前陣子記憶體股回檔時，我寫了一篇文章。底下的留言很快出現兩種相反看法。
一派認為，記憶體仍是景氣循環股，本益比最低時，獲利往往已經接近高點。另一派則認為，產業集中、HBM 的製造難度與 AI 需求，已經提高記憶體公司的長期獲利能力。
兩邊都拿得出資料。只是需求強勁、價格上漲、盈餘優於預期，既可能出現在週期高峰，也可能出現在產業改變的起點。這些資料重要卻不一定有能力分辨兩種說法。
我想借記憶體產業這個例子，談談「這次不一樣」這件事。如果你希望得到一個明確、二元、非黑即白的...
別讓 AI 幫你交作業：新人怎麼學，主管怎麼看
關於 AI 與工作的焦慮，這幾個月談得最多的是哪些職位會被取代。但即使初階職位沒有立刻消失，新人的養成方式也已經改變。
過去新人做的初階工作，可以拆成三種功能。第一是生產，新人負責整理資料、做模型、寫報告、完成主管交辦的雜活；第二是學習，他在完成工作的過程中練習判斷；第三是辨認，主管可以從產出看出這個人的能力、盲點與成長速度。
AI 先提高了產出效率，也讓主管更難從成品判斷新人是否真的學到東西。新人完成工作，不再保證他經歷過練習；交出的報告愈來愈漂亮，主管卻更難分辨他到底...
先讓自己輸得起，才談得上放得下
前幾個星期在 podcast 裡，被曼尼和 Angela 隔空點名聊聊內心的平靜與超然。我自認談不上超然，但也許可以分享一件過去慢慢學會的事：怎麼降低外部波動對心理的影響。
我不太想從那種「全然放下」的概念開始談。因為很多人把平靜理解成一種意志力，好像只要想通了，就能把欲望、比較、後悔和不甘心全部收進抽屜。但一個還在養家、還在看股價，還要面對同事、社群、孩子、父母，以及自己老去的人，你要他完全不在意，只是另一種不切實際。
Charlie Munger...
哲學家寫下的是原則，AI 模型跑出來的是誘因
十多年前a16z 說 「software is eating the world」。
十多年後我們才發現，incentives are eating software。
前幾週讀經濟學人時，我最感興趣的一篇文章就是《Why big AI labs are hiring so many philosophers》。為什麼大型 AI 實驗室開始認真僱用哲學家？
當年最有價值的能力是把想法寫成程式。現在更棘手的問題，則是當程式開始替人做判斷時，我們該把什麼原則寫進去，又如何確...
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Authors
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* Ex buy-side analysts, specialized in healthcare industry research (Clairvoyance Capital; JP Morgan Asset Management) * Professor of Practice, National Taiwan University * Associate Professor of Practice, Chang Gung University
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