Vincent’s Substack
Vincent Cheng-Wen Yu 余鎮文My personal Substack
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 96 | Founded | a year ago | Last Issue | 7 days ago |
| Active | Language |  ZH-TW | |||
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信任的部位學《下》：替未來的自己架好欄杆
在上篇與中篇裡，我們一路把信任從「可不可信」拆成幾個更具體的問題：部位要放多大、閾值要怎麼調、判斷工具本身會不會失準。
但這裡還有一個沒有處理的問題：就算你現在同意這些原則，真正做決策的那一刻，你未必會照著做。高代價的信任決策，很少發生在最冷靜的時候。它通常發生在中篇結尾說的那些狀態裡——壓力、誘惑、連勝自信、沉沒成本，一起發生的時候。
所以這篇不再談更多判斷框架。框架再漂亮，到了現場用不出來，也只是紙上談兵。這篇想談的是另一件比較不討喜的事：
你能不能在自己還清醒的時...
信任的部位學《中》：當判斷工具開始失準
上篇談到，信任不是一個非黑即白的判斷題。一旦進入部位決策，事情就變得複雜多了：你要信到什麼程度？你要讓這個人、這家公司、這段關係，影響你多少資源？
這些要估計的東西，幾乎都沒有明確標價，也不會寫在紙上。更令人感到麻煩的是：就算我可以把這些概念量化，我又怎麼知道自己腦中那套判斷工具，本身是不是早就失準了？
我那筆失敗的教育股投資，最讓我不甘心的地方不是我完全沒做功課。現實狀況剛好相反，我的研究做了、訪談做了、財務數字看了、管理層也接觸了。每一個動作在當下都說得通，甚至如果你...
信任的部位學《上》：信任不是非黑即白的判斷題
多數人在處理信任問題時，問的都是同一個問題：這個人可不可信？
這個問題很古老。從面相、識人術、到 FBI 教的微表情判讀，每一代都有自己的工具。大家都想從某個眼神、某句話、某個細節裡，看出對方到底是什麼人。
這種努力不能說沒用。但它把信任過度簡化成一道是非題：可信，或不可信。
我後來發現，真正讓人付出高代價的信任錯誤，通常不是你完全看錯一個人。更常見的情況是，你讓這個人、這家公司、這段關係，或這個機會，影響了太多你的資源：錢、時間、名聲、情感、職涯選擇、機會成本。你交出...
「每一度電的物理位置」：太空資料中心與下一輪 AI 基建競賽
如果有人告訴你，決定未來十年 AI 產業利潤歸屬的關鍵變數，可能不是模型能力，也不是 GPU 架構，而是「每一度電的物理位置」。你會當它是認真的產業判斷，還是科幻小說的開場？
這樣的問題之所以值得當成產業分析，是因為幾家最有能力重塑算力供給曲線的玩家，已經開始以不同方式測試這條路的邊界：SpaceX 在 IPO 前把太空資料中心納入它們的長期敘事；Amazon 的 Bezos 公開談論 GW 級太空算力；Google 的 Project Suncatcher 已經開始研究低...
真正的財富，是調度未來的能力
每隔一段時間，各種財富排行榜都會引發討論。人們比較那些數字，猜測富豪的資產組成，推算財富增速，然後很自然地把財富等同於資源、能力，甚至影響力。
這個推論不算全錯，但它只看見了已經被結算的力量。排行榜看得到的是存量，看不到的是調度未來的能力——那種在結果還沒發生前，有多少人願意先把資源押在一個人身上的情況。
後者，往往比帳面財富更值錢。
這次我想談的，就是這種能力背後最核心的來源：信用。很多時候，財富不是力量真正的起點。它只是信用被成功兌現後留下的沉澱。
▉ 錢是 po...
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Authors
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* Clairvoyance Capital (2007-2012) * JP Morgan Asset Management (2013-2024) * Associate Professor of Practice, Chang Gung University (2025-current) * Consultant of several startups
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