Vincent’s Substack
Vincent Cheng-Wen Yu 余鎮文My personal Substack
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 104 | Founded | a year ago | Last Issue | 7 days ago |
| Active | Language |  ZH-TW | |||
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vincentcwyu.substack.comLatest Issues
你在用誰的尺，替自己估值？
之前在思考商業解碼選題的時候，曾經考慮過一家公司，它靠幾句廣告詞，讓全世界相信「愛情需要一顆石頭來證明」。
它叫 De Beers。數十年來，它幾乎等於鑽石本身。可如今這家公司成了母公司急著切割，卻又很難賣出好價格的燙手資產。
過去三年，Anglo American 一再下修 De Beers 的帳面價值。2024 年 5 月，在擊退 BHP 的併購後，它宣布退出鑽石業務，準備分拆或出售 De Beers。只是到了 2026 年中，這筆交易仍未簽成。
更諷刺的是，De...
AI 把解釋變便宜後，父母真正該拿回什麼？
十幾年前，一個家教老師一小時可能要幾百元甚至上千元。今天，AI 扮演的家教，成本低到幾乎可以忽略，還能把同一個概念換十種講法。按理說父母應該鬆一口氣。奇怪的是，我身邊很多家長的焦慮不但沒有下降，反而更高了。
為什麼變便宜的東西，會讓人更焦慮？
因為 AI 把「講答案」變便宜了，卻讓「知道孩子哪裡卡住」變成更稀缺的能力。
諷刺的是，AI 越來越進步後，輸在起跑點的未必是孩子，反倒是被焦慮綁架的父母。
以前我們搶的是補習班名額。現在我們搶的是另一種安全感：我有沒有幫孩子用...
當選擇權開始通膨，承諾就有了價格
「我對這個很有興趣，我們找時間聊聊。」這句話，你今年聽過幾次？
我的經驗是：說這句話的人，99%不會再出現。
不是機會變少了。其實是「有興趣」這三個字，已經通膨到不值錢了。
當退出成本變成零，輕易說出口的承諾，就跟免費貼紙一樣。大家都拿，但沒人會貼在自己筆電上。
我過去寫過不少關於保留選擇權的文章。職涯、投資、創業、人生大決策，我都相信 optionality 很重要。世界變化太快，資訊永遠不完整，太早把自己鎖死在一條路上，很多時候只是提早放大錯誤。這種事在投資裡叫...
你追的不是主力，是自己的貪婪與恐懼
在業界的這二十年，我見過許多不同類型投資人。但經常出現在某些話題中那個無所不知、看穿所有人、決定大盤往哪走的「主力」，我到現在還是沒見過。
市場沒有共同意志。它是一堆玩家的集合：long-only、hedge fund、CTA、market maker、dealer、ETF、散戶、主權基金，每個人的時間尺度、風控限制、部位方向和交易目的都不一樣。
當然，停損點集中的價位、整數關卡、均線、前高前低，這些地方本來就容易形成流動性。大型資金也會選在有量的地方進出，因為要成交，就...
PEG 的陷阱：它把最難的問題藏進分母
你用PEG撿過便宜，結果越撿越貴嗎？
投資裡很多危險的東西，一開始都很合理。PEG就是其中之一。
它聽起來很聰明：PE只看本益比，PEG把成長率也放進來。高PE的公司，如果成長夠快，未必昂貴。
問題是「成長」可能是估值裡最難的事。成長的速度、品質、持續時間、資本需求、競爭耗損，以及最後有多少能轉成自由現金流，這些都很複雜。PEG 卻只用一個簡單的 G，就把它們全部塞進分母。
你以為自己處理了成長。其實你只是把炸彈藏起來，然後告訴自己很安全。
自從Peter Lync...
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Authors
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* Ex buy-side analysts, specialized in healthcare industry research (Clairvoyance Capital; JP Morgan Asset Management) * Professor of Practice, National Taiwan University * Associate Professor of Practice, Chang Gung University
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