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AI and Politics

AI and Politics is a newsletter exploring how artificial intelligence is reshaping democracy, governance, and political behavior. It provides clear-eyed analysis of AI's impact on jobs, elections, civic engagement, and democracy, without hype or doom.

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Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesTwice weekly
Issues131Foundeda year agoLast Issue2 days ago
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Latest Issues

AI and the Pattern Matching Conditions Part 3: What the Oracle Boundary Means for Workers, Policymakers, and Investors

This trilogy has made one argument in three steps. First, the three big AI debates, jobs, capability, and value, are all answered by the same four conditions: binary outcomes, deep training data, fully digital work, and an automated verific...

2 days ago

AI and the Pattern Matching Conditions Part 2: The Spillover Problem

The first piece in this trilogy argued that AI’s transformative outcomes concentrate in domains with four properties: binary outcomes, deep training data, fully digital work, and above all an automated verification oracle that can check cor...

9 days ago

The Narrative Has Turned

The dominant public conversation about artificial intelligence has changed substantially in the past six weeks. Six months ago, the mainstream framing across major media was existential risk, imminent displacement, and the AGI 2027 timeline...

13 days ago

AI and the Pattern Matching Conditions Part 1: Three AI Debates, One Answer

There are three separate conversations about AI happening right now, and they barely acknowledge each other. And all are answered by the Pattern Matching Conditions, a framework for predicting which jobs AI will displace and where we should...

16 days ago

The 18-Month AI Panic: Twelve-Month Check-In

In October 2025 I made a public, falsifiable prediction: by January 2027, eighteen months after the "AI will take your job in 18 months" panic peaked, the U.S. macroeconomy would show no signs of AI-driven collapse. Three metrics, fixed in...

20 days ago

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