AI as Normal Technology
Sayash Kapoor, Arvind NarayananAnalyzing AI as transformative but normal technology, not superintelligence.
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normaltech.aiLatest Issues
Steering AI Beyond Automation
By Gabriel Unger and Arvind Narayanan. Unger is an economist at Stanford’s Digital Economy Lab.
One of the most fundamental questions for the field of AI today is: to what extent is the project of AI purely about automating human labor?
T...
A big-tent or small-tent AI safety movement?
In recent weeks, two narratives about AI safety have emerged: either AI existential risk is real and imminent, or AI leaders’ and whistleblowers’ claims to that effect are insincere — a “psyop” or hype or a twisted form of regulatory captur...
AI existential risk probabilities are (still) too unreliable to inform policy
Over two years ago we wrote a detailed deconstruction of p(doom) and argued that its primary effect is to launder vague intuitions and fears through a facade of quantification. The essay has fresh relevance today as p(doom) rhetoric is driv...
The AI-as-Normal-Technology view of loss-of-control incidents
This essay is over 13,000 words long and represents our most substantial writing on AI safety since the original essay.
Over the last few months, loss-of-control incidents at OpenAI and Anthropic have intensified concerns about AI safety....
AI agents can't yet do open-ended AI research
The goal of leading AI labs is recursive self-improvement (RSI): the automation of AI research using AI agents. RSI also underpins forecasts of explosive AI progress. How can we assess if we are close to this milestone?
One way is to use b...
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Co-author of AI Snake Oil and AI as Normal Technology: normaltech.ai
Co-author of AI as Normal Technology and AI Snake Oil
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