AI Futures Project
Daniel Kokotajlo, Hamish Low, Joshua Turner, Ryan Greenblatt, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, Thomas Larsen, Brendan HalsteadPreparing for a world with AGI
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 25 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 17 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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blog.aifutures.orgLatest Issues
Plan A: Suggestions For Further Work
Yesterday we released AI 2040: Plan A, but there’s lots of work left to do.
We still have tons of uncertainty about the future of AI and the best strategies for how humanity can successfully chart a path through the intelligence explosion....
AI 2040: Plan A
For the past year, we at the AI Futures Project have been sinking most of our time into our next big scenario. Now it’s done!
It’s called AI 2040: Plan A.
It’s called Plan A because it’s a recommendation, not a prediction. It’s what...
A forecast of Chinese DUV and EUV photolithography progress
This post was written in collaboration between the AI Futures Project and The Substrate and cross-posted to both.
Restrictions on photolithography machines are a crucial bottleneck for China’s AI chip efforts. To get around them, China nee...
Q1 2026 Timelines Update
We’re mostly focused on research and writing for our next big scenario, but we’re also continuing to think about AI timelines and takeoff speeds, monitoring the evidence as it comes in, and adjusting our expectations accordingly. We’re tent...
Grading AI 2027’s 2025 Predictions
AI 2027 laid out a detailed scenario for how AI would progress from 2025 through 2027, including quantitative predictions and qualitative descriptions of the AI landscape.
Now that we’re in early 2026, we can grade how its 2025 predictions...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Was a philosophy PhD student, left to work at AI Impacts, then Center on Long-Term Risk, then OpenAI. Quit OpenAI due to losing confidence that it would behave responsibly around the time of AGI. Now executive director of the AI Futures Project.
Research Associate at IAPS
AI policy and other things
I work at Redwood Research on technical AI security+safety research.
AGI forecasting and governance researcher at AI Futures Project
Researcher at AI Futures Project
I was a coauthor on AI 2027 and work as a researcher for the AI Futures Project.
Brendan helped develop the AI Futures Model.
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