AI Futures Project
Daniel Kokotajlo, Steven Veld, Eli Lifland, Nick Marsh, Alex Kastner, Brendan HalsteadPreparing for a world with AGI
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 21 | Founded | a year ago | Last Issue | 3 months ago |
| Active | |||||
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blog.aifutures.orgLatest Issues
Grading AI 2027’s 2025 Predictions
AI 2027 laid out a detailed scenario for how AI would progress from 2025 through 2027, including quantitative predictions and qualitative descriptions of the AI landscape.
Now that we’re in early 2026, we can grade how its 2025 predictions...
Clarifying how our AI timelines forecasts have changed since AI 2027
Some recent news articles discuss updates to our AI timelines since AI 2027, most notably our new timelines and takeoff model, the AI Futures Model (see blog post announcement).1 While we’re glad to see broader discussion of the AI timeline...
Forecast how AI will progress in 2026
We’ve worked with AI Digest to create a survey where you can forecast how AI will progress in 2026, focusing on the developments that we think are most important to track. We found it useful to pre-register our forecasts in 2025 and compare...
What Happens When Superhuman AIs Compete for Control?
In AI 2027, one company called OpenBrain dominates the AI race in the US. Looking around at the current state of affairs at the start of 2026, however, there seem to be a few AGI companies jockeying for the lead — and it stands to reason th...
AI Futures Model: Dec 2025 Update
We’ve significantly upgraded our timelines and takeoff model! Our new unified model predicts when AIs will reach key capability milestones: for example, Automated Coder / AC (full automation of coding) and superintelligence / ASI (much bett...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Was a philosophy PhD student, left to work at AI Impacts, then Center on Long-Term Risk, then OpenAI. Quit OpenAI due to losing confidence that it would behave responsibly around the time of AGI. Now executive director of the AI Futures Project.
AI forecasting, strategy, and policy.
AGI forecasting and governance researcher at AI Futures Project
Recent math PhD focused on AI strategy and forecasting. Contributor at AI Futures Project.
Brendan helped develop the AI Futures Model.
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