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Preparing for a world with AGI

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Latest Issues

How to pace the US frontier

Introduction

Last week, the Pacing the Frontier open letter, signed by over 1,000 frontier AI employees, requested “the U.S. government support an international effort to develop the technical and governance tools needed to deliberately...

9 days ago
73
25

Plan A: Suggestions For Further Work

Yesterday we released AI 2040: Plan A, but there’s lots of work left to do.

We still have tons of uncertainty about the future of AI and the best strategies for how humanity can successfully chart a path through the intelligence explosion....

a month ago
57
12

AI 2040: Plan A

For the past year, we at the AI Futures Project have been sinking most of our time into our next big scenario. Now it’s done!

It’s called AI 2040: Plan A.

It’s called Plan A because it’s a recommendation, not a prediction. It’s what...

a month ago
183
46

A forecast of Chinese DUV and EUV photolithography progress

This post was written in collaboration between the AI Futures Project and The Substrate and cross-posted to both.

Restrictions on photolithography machines are a crucial bottleneck for China’s AI chip efforts. To get around them, China nee...

2 months ago
37
7

Q1 2026 Timelines Update

We’re mostly focused on research and writing for our next big scenario, but we’re also continuing to think about AI timelines and takeoff speeds, monitoring the evidence as it comes in, and adjusting our expectations accordingly. We’re tent...

4 months ago
161
36

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Authors

The writers behind this newsletter.

  • Daniel Kokotajlo

    Was a philosophy PhD student, left to work at AI Impacts, then Center on Long-Term Risk, then OpenAI. Quit OpenAI due to losing confidence that it would behave responsibly around the time of AGI. Now executive director of the AI Futures Project.

  • Hamish Low

    Research Associate at IAPS

  • Miles Kodama

    I study physics at Williams College and blog at mkodama.org.

  • Joshua Turner

    AI policy and other things

  • Ryan Greenblatt

    I work at Redwood Research on technical AI security+safety research.

  • Eli Lifland

    AGI forecasting and governance researcher at AI Futures Project

  • Romeo Dean

    Researcher at AI Futures Project

  • Thomas Larsen

    I was a coauthor on AI 2027 and work as a researcher for the AI Futures Project.

  • Brendan Halstead

    Brendan helped develop the AI Futures Model.

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