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Alina Khay

Actionable insights and strategies on Financial Markets, Quantitative Finance and Machine Learning—backed by data and research.

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Substack
PricingOnly paid issuesPublishesTwice weekly
Issues154Foundeda year agoLast Issue28 hours ago
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Latest Issues

The Trapped Central Bank: Why Debt Service Anchors Hard Assets

The rates market is pricing a fantasy.

Convinced that persistent energy inflation and a hawkish leadership pivot under Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will force a return to monetary tightening, fixed-income desks have aggressively repri...

28 hours ago
35
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Is Euphoria Over? Reading the Mid-July Regime Shift

And the Late Cycle Capital Rotation

The money hasn’t left the market; it has just stopped deciding that everyone deserves a share.

7 days ago
53
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Why Does Alpha Disappear Exactly When Opportunities Appear to Be Increasing?

And how Poker can explain this paradox

One of the strangest contradictions in markets is this: when stocks stop moving in lockstep and single names start telling their own stories, active managers should have the upper hand. Dispersion wid...

12 days ago
48
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What Really Drives Gold Now

It isn't real yields

Real yields set the swings; central banks set the floor. Confusing the two is expensive.

16 days ago
46
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How I Forecast a Market This Crowded: Odds, Precedents and Exits

A record equity overweight, a bond hedge that stopped working, and the Exit Census that counts what is left

Twice this year my forecasting pipeline has produced a number I would rather not have published. The first time was January: custod...

20 days ago
46
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