Whirligig Bear
Andrew CourtneyYou've been putting it up your whole life, you just didn't know it.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 20 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 13 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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whirligigbear.substack.comLatest Issues
On Bet Sizing, part 1
A few months back Richard Rubin from the WSJ had a fascinating story of a tax economist, Alan Cole, who put all of his liquid savings into Kalshi bets of government expenditures not decreasing by more than specific amounts in 2025. He had a...
Legibility
Disclosure: I run Kalshinomics.com, which may earn Kalshi referral fees. I may trade event contracts on Kalshi and securities on other platforms. Readers should consider this relationship when evaluating my analysis. For educational purpo...
Are traders on Kalshi being profiled?
Disclosure: I run Kalshinomics.com, which may earn Kalshi referral fees. I may trade event contracts on Kalshi and securities on other platforms. Readers should consider this relationship when evaluating my analysis. For educational purpo...
ETFs with Predictions. Ready for Prime Time?
“How’s your 401k doin?” asks the charming politician. Well if you buy the wrong ETF, part of it might just go to zero.
Roundhill has filed for 6 new ETFs whose underlyings are either swaps or event contracts. This is the first time I’ve s...
Don't just put the chart on the screen
If we’re going to start using prediction market prices as a complement to news, we should consider how new and still evolving these markets are. Just because a market price is available doesn’t automatically make that market efficient. Some...
Audience Metrics
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| Subscribers | Engagement | 72 | Monthly Web Visits | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accepts Sponsors | Estimated Cost per Ad | ||||
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Former derivatives trader, now “house dad.” Constantly learning. Love economics, history, finance, programming, smoked meats. Recently thinking a lot about practical use cases of AI tools.
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