Arya’s Substack
AryaMy personal Substack
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 254 | Founded | 3 years ago | Last Issue | 6 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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aryadeniz.substack.comLatest Issues
The Financial System’s Hurdle Rate
I have a simple thought that at around a certain government treasury yield, the financial system does not work. Around 2006 - 2008 period and 1999 - 2002 periods, some (almost all) of the bearish arguments for bonds today existed and yet gl...
Let the Bond Market Speak but Don’t Mistake It for the Truth
Mr. Stanley F. Druckenmiller’s opinion article on the WSJ was published 90 minutes after US market close. He says the long-term Treasury yield is the most important price in the world and the last fiscal disciplinarian America has left. The...
Cryptocurrency and Reflexivity
Sunday night I wrote about Bitcoin and Ethereum, after seeing commercial hedgers’ net short positioning I thought to myself if not now when? Got lucky.
Below are the positioning charts from Sunday.
Since then Bitcoin is up ~15% and Ethere...
Operation Twist 2026 Redux
I have been saying all year, longer than a year to be honest, $USDJPY pair is overextended. Both the Japanese Yen leg (which I think is too weak) and US dollar leg (which I think is strong - not too strong) have asymmetric downside in the d...
August 2026 - Market Thoughts
I said I was not going to post for the remainder for 2026, 10+ posts ago - I enjoy it. Also, I was looking at rising in finance metrics and I realized that with almost close to 1,000 subscribers we’d be within top 50? Pretty cool, makes me...
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