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Asymmetric Opportunities

Investment research. I like companies with dominant positions in niche markets serving critical inputs into massive markets

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Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesWeekly
Issues7Founded8 months agoLast Issue3 months ago
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Latest Issues

Seikoh Giken 6834 Update

Q3 Results Crushed It. Guidance Blew Through My Bull Case.

The supply bottleneck is gone. The earnings inflection is here.

In October I published my initial thesis on Seikoh Giken, arguing that consensus implicitly priced in a sharp d...

3 months ago
13
6

Nittobo (3110) - we are early

And soon, you will need to pay

Hello friends long time no see. I’ll give an explanation for my recent silence on Substack in the fullness of time, but I’m in Tokyo now and Nittobo is reporting tomorrow.

DISCLAIMER: Funds and individua...

4 months ago
7
9

The AI Bubble Debate Is Missing Half the Equation

The axis of debate around the “AI Bubble” issue is almost always revolving around supply: Nvidia GPUs, TSMC fabs, Zuckerberg revealing $600 billion in capex for 2026-2028, Oracle and OpenAI signing mega deals.

But very few people are track...

7 months ago
20
15

NHK Spring (TSE: 5991): Mispriced AI Storage Infrastructure Play

Executive Summary

NHK Spring trades at 12.4× consensus EPS despite operating as a duopoly supplier of critical components for AI data center storage infrastructure. The company manufactures precision disk drive suspensions—the mechanica...

7 months ago
17
9

The GPU Data Center “Bubble” That Isn’t: Why the Bear Case Doesn’t Add Up

You’ve probably heard the bear case by now: “AI data centers are a cash-burning bubble. Hardware becomes obsolete every year, real profits are inflated by understating depreciation, and old GPUs are worthless as collateral.”

It sounds scar...

8 months ago
1
2

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  • Asymmetric Opportunities

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