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Authentic Intel

William Miller

Analysis and commentary on U.S. politics, markets, and the economy.

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Substack
PricingFreemiumPublishesTwice weekly
Issues48Founded2 years agoLast Issue4 months ago
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Latest Issues

Some thoughts on the "post-persuasion" information environment

Hello friends. It’s been a minute! The last real post for this newsletter was May of 2025. Today, after a lengthy hiatus, I’m writing on account of three things:

  1. I wanted to share some thoughts on the current environment, specifically...
4 months ago
22
7

What tariff-driven inflation?

WEEKLY POLL

→ Last week’s poll

Will China (militarily) make a move on Taiwan by the end of 2026?

  • 63% - No ✅

  • 37% - Yes

→ This week’s poll

Subscribe now


PREDICTION MARKETS

→ (Dis)inflation?

Polymarke...

a year ago
18
3

What happened with the Taiwanese dollar?

WEEKLY POLL

→ Last week’s poll

US recession in 2025?

  • 59% - Yes ✅

  • 41% - No

→ This week’s poll

Subscribe now


PREDICTION MARKETS

Taiwan, as you’ll read below, is central to US-China tensions — both economi...

a year ago
14

Consumers stay consumin'

WEEKLY POLL

→ Last week’s poll

Price of gold by year-end?

  • 94% - Higher ✅

  • 6% - Lower

→ This week’s poll

Reminder: Neither I nor anyone else can see how you vote.

Subscribe now


PREDICTION MARKETS

→ R...

a year ago
18
2

Gold is speaking volumes

WEEKLY POLL

→ Last week’s poll

Most important US institution?

  • 38% - The Legislative Branch ✅

  • 25% - The Judicial Branch

  • 25% - The Federal Reserve

  • 13% - The Executive Branch

→ This week’s poll

Reminder: Ne...

a year ago
15
3

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  • William Miller

    US policy, economics, financial markets. Some culture stuff here and there. Boundlessly curious. Texan (DFW); former Missourian. Research, analysis, et cetera, at www.boydinstitute.org.

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