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Trading Time Machine

Dave Johnson

Mechanical trading systems. Honest backtests. No hype.

Platform
Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesDaily
Issues130Founded6 years agoLast Issue13 days ago
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Latest Issues

The Weekend Review, Now on YouTube

I’ve started a YouTube channel for Trading Time Machine. It carries the same weekend reviews I publish here on Substack, in video form.

A few things you should know up front.

The voice in the videos is AI, and so is the slide generation....

13 days ago
2

A Third of S&P 500 Stocks Are in a Bear Market at a Record High. Here Is What Happened Next to Stocks Like That.

The S&P 500 closed Friday 1.0% below its record. Inside it, 182 of its stocks, 36%, are in a bear market of their own: 20% or more below their highest close of the past year.

Last week we showed how few stocks are holding the index up. Thi...

13 days ago
4
8

The Reddit Fear & Greed Strategy: 2 Years of Live Results

Two years ago, on the Friday before Labor Day, I shared a little backtest on Reddit. The CNN Fear & Greed Index had just closed at 63.43, its highest close in 50 days, and SPY had tended to do well after that. The rules were simple:

  • Bu...
17 days ago
15
9

S&P 500 Near a Record High, but Market Breadth Is the Weakest Since 2000

On Friday, SPY closed at 771.35, 0.6% below its August 13 record close of 775.95. Looking only at the index, it has been a dull six weeks: a tight range, 20-day realized volatility of about 11%, an RSI of 57, and a close 1.5% above the 50-d...

20 days ago
4
3

Can the risk context surrounding a trade matter more than the entry signal itself?

In this video, I explain why the same setup can produce different results across exposure readings, how I use Recommended Exposure as a governor for automated daily-bar systems in my own portfolio, what the 0% to 150% scale means, and how t...

a month ago
8

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  • Dave Johnson

    Former investment advisor. Mechanical trading system developer. I build rules-based systems and share the research behind them at TradingTimeMachine.com.

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