Bad Bets
Bad Bets, GoChiefESPN tells you what happened. Bad Bets tells you what to do about it. A free model across MLB, NBA, WNBA, CFB and NFL — every pick public, every result graded. Daily edges + live shot charts: badbets.io.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 171 | Founded | 5 years ago | Last Issue | 21 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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badbets.substack.comLatest Issues
⚾ MLB Bad Bets — The Board Goes Quiet
⚡ The 30-Second Read
Two things happened Sunday, and they point in opposite directions.
🌋 The record-tier play cashed. PIT +17.5% with Skenes on the mound went 7-1 — the loudest edge on the board, and it delivered exactly like the buc...
⚾ MLB Bad Bets — The Best Day of the Run (and the Lock Still Lost)
⚡ The 30-Second Read
Saturday was the best single day of the entire run: 11-4. And the loudest bet on the board — the CWS five-unit lock — got shut out 0-1. Both of those sentences are true, and together they are the entire argument for...
⚾ MLB Bad Bets — The Five-Unit Lesson
⚡ The 30-Second Read
Yesterday we told you the model wanted 5.00 units on Colorado — the heaviest tag this column has ever posted. We also told you, in the same breath, that it would make you feel insane.
It lost. CIN 7, COL 2. Not clo...
⚾ MLB Bad Bets — The Board Is Back
⚡ The 30-Second Read
Baseball’s back. Day 51. The board goes up like it has every morning since May.
Ten games, and the model came off four days of rest swinging:
🔒 COL +13.2% — and Kelly wants 5.00 units on it. That is the single he...
⚾ The Second-Half Board — Where the Projection and the Money Disagree
⚡ The 30-Second Read
ESPN dropped its second-half preview this morning — all 30 teams, tiered, with Bradford Doolittle’s championship odds off 10,000 Monte Carlo sims of the remaining schedule.
We’re not going to re-rank their tiers fo...
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The writers behind this newsletter.
A quantitative MLB model, graded in public every single day. We price all 15 games against the de-vigged market, post the edges each morning, and grade every pick — including the misses. Not picks. Prices. ⚾
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