A Saber Capital investment journal
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Monthly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 190 | Founded | 4 years ago | Last Issue | 3 months ago |
| Active | |||||
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basehitinvesting.substack.comLatest Issues
AI Fear Trade, Emotional Markets, Avoiding Value Traps, and Current Opportunities
Some thoughts on the recent emotional "AI Fear Trade" along with case studies; and comments on NRP, DOUG, PBI, oil, silver, and DIS
This post is going to be more of a looseleaf collection of a few different topics I’m thinking about and id...
Thoughts on Market Valuations, AI, Productivity and Shortages
Two years ago, I wrote a post about the rising capital intensity of big tech and the depreciation charges that would soon flow through income statements. This continues to be my valuation concern, as free cash flow lags net income significa...
Lincoln Post: NFLX and Theaters, FCNCA Earnings
More Thoughts on NFLX and Theaters, Ted Sarandos comments for that business, CNK, MCS; also FCNCA earnings update, and the overemphasis on asset sensitivity and expense growth
Short Lincoln Post with a follow up on Netflix merger and their...
Contrarian Low-Cost Producer at a 15% FCF Yield + Excess Real Estate
Large margin of safety from the valuable real estate being monetized, underappreciated moat with key cost advantages, growth prospects thanks to new law taking effect in 2026. Mgmt buying back shares.
Today’s discussion:
Oil Free Cash Flow: California and Canada vs Texas; Charlie Munger's Investment Mistake; A Producer at Half of Liquidation Value
Why California & Canadian oil production has better ROIC and more FCF than Texas; a look at one of Charlie's biggest investment mistakes (his own words); a discounted producer buying back shares
A great book to read about the origin of fra...
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Authors
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Managing Partner of Saber Capital Management. Saber manages separate accounts and a fund modeled after the Buffett partnerships. For more than a decade, John has managed client capital and written about investing ideas at Base Hit Investing.
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