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BASM’s Substack

BASM - 看圖說故事

My personal Substack

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Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesWeekly
Issues101Founded3 years agoLast Issue3 months ago
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Korean

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Latest Issues

大戰若打不完,AVAV 與 KTOS 將繼續受惠?

【看圖說故事】整篇文章,很大的篇幅都是來自於 GS 的國防報告,並會稍微詳細解紹 GS 如何評估 AVAV 跟 KTOS 這兩間公司;

但認識一間公司,除了營收與獲利之外,看看過去的歷史故事其實滿有趣的,因此本篇文章最有趣的地方,應該是最後一段的有關於 KTOS 的成立經過;

【看圖說故事】想到國防,就會想到知名戰鬥機、坦克和軍艦,但地緣政治風險越演越烈,加上川普搧風點火,全球國防開支正朝著不斷增加的方向前進,熱錢/資金正開始重塑國防格局。

Go...

3 months ago
19

NVIDIA CUDA Tile vs. Google TPU ,傻傻分不清?

【看圖說故事】隨著 Google 正式推出 Gemini 3.0,市場關注的焦點迅速從模型本身的能力,擴散至其對整個 AI 生態系的潛在衝擊。投資人最初的擔憂集中在 Gemini 是否將對 OpenAI 形成結構性競爭壓力,進而改變 LLM 的商業化節奏與雲端服務格局;

但隨著討論深化,焦點進一步轉向 Google 內部算力體系的垂直整合優勢,特別是 TPU 在訓練與推論端的角色,是否可能對長期由 GPU 主導的 AI 算力市場造成實質影響。隨後,Google...

5 months ago
18
3

高盛看衰 Rocket Lab 又將 Neutron 試射延期?

【看圖說故事】Neutron 中型火箭首次發射被推遲至 2026 年第一季度,這是最大的壞消息,但好消息是,Rocket Lab 預計 Neutron 中型火箭隨後的 3 次全價 (full price ) 發射將在首次試射後的 12 個月內完成。

截至 FY25Q3 法說會, 積壓訂單中,已包含 2 個 Neutron 中型火箭全價任務,另有第 3 個簽約 Neutron 中型火箭的搭便車 ( ride-share) 任務尚未計入積壓訂單。

就先前的...

6 months ago
21

Constellation Energy(CEG) 是美國最大核電廠?

【看圖說故事】任何跟 AI 沾上邊的電力供應商都漲翻天,尤其是 SMR 族群的 OKLO;儘管市場都知道,這間公司不僅連一毛錢都還沒開始進帳,他的小型模租反應爐的設計都還在送審階段,而且就算送審過關,還要花多久時間才能蓋好 ?

但是,市場其實才不管這麼多,反正股價會漲就好,不要是最後一名出場就好?

保守一點的投資人,其實可考慮傳統一點的電力公司,畢竟 AI 現在就要用電,而電廠就是有現成的電,還有輸電線路,以及客戶,更重要的是可靠度;先比誰的電多,不管...

7 months ago
28
1

AI 客戶將越來越多的德州電王(ERCOT) - Vistra(VST) ?

【看圖說故事】Vistra 的核電其實不多,但受 AI 資料中心用電需求驅動,股價表現也不錯;

其實,資料中心最需要的是可靠電力,Vistra 的多元發電組合,能提供即時調度的電力來支援資料中心,尤其天然氣與儲能 (Moss Landing 儲能站是全球最大級別的電池儲能系統之一) 還是目前最能快速支援 AI 電力需求的技術。

發電能力

  • 資料中心業者(如 Meta、Microsoft、Amazon)在談合約時,通常偏好能保證供電的電...
8 months ago
48
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  • BASM - 看圖說故事

    FREDERICK R. KOBRIC 針對上市公司的選股 BASM 法則:「經營模式(Business Model)、假設 (Assumptions)、策略 (Strategy) 和管理(Management),簡稱 BASM」。 BASM法則可以預測哪家公司將會成長茁壯,創造傲人的股票報酬率。

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