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Buy the Rumor; Sell the News

Dave Friedman
Hundreds of paid subscribers

A semi-daily report about the practical, real-world applications of AI, with a dash of speculation

Platform
Substack
PricingFreemiumPublishesDaily
Issues554Founded6 years agoLast Issue9 days ago
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Latest Issues

Nobody Reads the Tokens

Rob May published a thoughtful piece this week called “Friction Points: What Could Slow the AI Rocketship?“ His argument is clean: AI token demand has two structural ceilings. The first is economic: at some point the marginal cost of the ne...

9 days ago
12

OneChronos Wants to Build a Financial Market For Frontier Compute

A few days ago, Kelly Littlepage, OneChronos’ CEO, walked me through what his company is building in compute markets. In July 2025, it announced a partnership with Auctionomics to bring auctions to the compute market, and what I heard durin...

14 days ago
8

The Hidden Correlation Trade in AI Infrastructure

There is so much capital flowing into AI infrastructure financing that financiers are running out of obvious deal templates. So they’re starting to manufacture novel ones. Many of the new structures share a common feature: they take exposur...

16 days ago
9

OpenAI’s Q4 2026 IPO Might not Happen

On April 27, 2026, the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI’s CFO has told other company leaders she is worried OpenAI may not be able to pay for its future compute contracts if revenue does not grow fast enough. The same reporting indi...

22 days ago
16

The Compute Budget is the Personality

Here’s a fun question you can ask another human: How many words will be in the next sentence you speak? Assuming that your human interlocutor is capable of recursive thinking (not all humans are!), your interlocutor will use a kind of scrat...

a month ago
8

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