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Buy the Rumor; Sell the News

Dave Friedman
Hundreds of paid subscribers

A semi-daily report about the practical, real-world applications of AI, with a dash of speculation

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Substack
PricingFreemiumPublishesDaily
Issues569Founded6 years agoLast Issue5 days ago
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Artwork for Buy the Rumor; Sell the News

Latest Issues

CoreWeave Piles on More Debt

Please see relevant disclosures here.


Fitch assigned CoreWeave’s proposed $2.6 billion senior secured delayed-draw term loan, DDTL 5.5, a ‘BB+’ rating with a Recovery Rating of ‘RR2’ this morning. It affired CoreWeave’s Long-Term Is...

5 days ago
6
2

AI 2040 Mistakes Technical Legibility for Political Feasibility

Please see relevant disclosures here.


AI 2040 is best understood as an aspirational design exercise, not a plausible geopolitical scenario. Its authors largely acknowledge this: Plan A is described as a recommendation rather than a...

11 days ago
1

Reading Hugging Face’s Download Distribution as a Signal About Compute Markets

Please see relevant disclosures here.


Summary

A July 9, 2026 snapshot of the 3,000 most-downloaded models on Hugging Face shows a highly unequal, power-law-like distribution. The leading model, `sentence-transformers/all-MiniLM...

12 days ago
4
1

Some Bitcoin Mines can be AI Data Centers; Most Can't

Please see relevant disclosures here.

For reasons that only the algorithmic gods know, I had a few conversations over the past week with people who seemed to be under the impression that converting bitcoin mining operations to AI data cent...

16 days ago
9

Compute Derivatives Basis Risk Primer

Please see relevant disclosures here.

This post attempts to present a taxonomy of basis risks for compute derivatives. Considering how nascent the market for compute derivatives is, consider the following to be a reasonable, albeit likely...

19 days ago
5
1

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