Cliodynamica by Peter Turchin
Peter Turchin, Jakob Zsambok, Jenny Reddish, Samantha Holder, Daniel KondorAncient history and today's politics through the lens of Cliodynamics ("history as science"). Recent books: End Times (2023), The Great Holocene Transformation (2025).
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 97 | Founded | a year ago | Last Issue | 10 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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peterturchin.substack.comLatest Issues
The Structural-Demographic State of America VI
The Newest Data on Well-Being/Immiseration
Last year, I reviewed the data on well-being proxies as part of my series on the American structural-demographic variables. The goal of updating time-series data to 2025 was to see whether there w...
The Energy Shock of the 14th Century
In the previous post, I argued that China is likely to weather the 2026 Oil Shock in a reasonably effective manner. A couple of supporters asked me what I think about its effect on America. I am not an energy expert, so I looked up what tho...
The Oil Shock's Consequences: Resilience or Collapse?
Arthur Berman, commenting on my generally positive review of China’s well-being variables, wrote
I believe China’s more positive trajectory is founded on cheap, imported oil and natural gas supply. The Ukraine and now Iran energy shocks...
The Silver Lining of the Baby Bust
In my previous blog, Well-being and Immiseration in Contemporary China, I reviewed a spectrum of quantitative proxies for well-being (and it’s opposite, immiseration), including economic, biological, and psychological variables. It is impre...
Well-being and Immiseration in Contemporary China
Structural-Demographic Analysis
Now that we have a better understanding of how social power operates and is reproduced in PRC (Stairway to Heaven I and Stairway to Heaven II), it’s time to dive into various quantitative proxies for the mai...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Peter Turchin is Project Leader at the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna. His books include End Times (2023), Ultrasociety (2015), and The Great Holocene Transformation (2025).
Staff Scientist in Social Complexity and Collapse at the Complexity Science Hub, Vienna, and Seshat: Global History Databank.
Exploring herbal lore, the anthropology of scent, the places I visit and the things I read. Based in Leopoldstadt, Vienna.
Samantha is the Lead Historical Research for Seshat: Global History Databank and has been working with Peter and the team since 2019.
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