Cliodynamica by Peter Turchin
Peter Turchin, Jakob Zsambok, Jenny Reddish, Samantha Holder, Daniel KondorAncient history and today's politics through the lens of Cliodynamics ("history as science"). Recent books: End Times (2023), The Great Holocene Transformation (2025).
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 104 | Founded | a year ago | Last Issue | 6 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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peterturchin.substack.comLatest Issues
War in Ukraine X
In the previous post in this series, Is Ukraine-Russia War Entering the End Game?, my conclusion was that Ukraine was on track to losing the war, as predicted by the attritional model that I had developed for this conflict, but with a quali...
The Structural-Demographic State of Japan III
Well-being/Immiseration Trends
This is the third post in this series. Part I, Part II.
America at 250
Today the United States is celebrating its 250th anniversary. And there is a lot to celebrate. America’s achievements during its (relatively) short history have been truly astounding. It’s not an exaggeration to say that it is the most cons...
AC for Me, Not for Thee
The weather forecast for my area predicts 38 degrees C (over 100 Fahrenheit) on Thursday. I really hope that we will not have any power interruptions, as surviving without air-conditioning (AC) at such temperature (and fairly high humidity,...
India's Youth Bulge
Demographic Dynamics of India Compared to China
The structural-demographic (SD) theory pays a lot of attention to demographic dynamics (as is implied by the theory’s name). While the youth bulge is not one of the primary drivers for instab...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Peter Turchin is Project Leader at the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna. His books include End Times (2023), Ultrasociety (2015), and The Great Holocene Transformation (2025).
Staff Scientist in Social Complexity and Collapse at the Complexity Science Hub, Vienna, and Seshat: Global History Databank.
Exploring herbal lore, the anthropology of scent, the places I visit and the things I read. Based in Leopoldstadt, Vienna.
Samantha is the Lead Historical Research for Seshat: Global History Databank and has been working with Peter and the team since 2019.
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