Ancient history and today's politics through the lens of Cliodynamics ("history as science"). Recent books: End Times (2023), The Great Holocene Transformation (2025).
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 118 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 6 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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peterturchin.substack.comLatest Issues
Demography of Polities II
France’s PolitiSequence
In Part I, I argued that we can fruitfully represent political dynamics of states as a sequence of integrative/disintegrative cycles. Today, let’s see how this approach works in a paradigmatic example: France. The e...
Demography of Polities I
The idea that states and empires are “organism-like” in that they are born, grow, age, become senile and then die, has very long historical roots, going back at least to the Antiquity (for example, in the work of Polybius). The second centu...
Artificial Scientists Are Not as Good as Human Scientists
Last month (September 2026) I was struck by two similar news. In each case, an AI company made a claim that their AI made an important scientific advance. See the infographic for details (created with the help of AI 🙂).
Following these a...
What Came First in Human Evolution: Intelligence or Culture?
I read Yuval Noah Harari’s Sapiens soon after its publication. Despite the hype I found it quite boring. I didn’t learn anything new from the book (and what new I saw was mostly wrong, as others have commented). The intellectual infrastruct...
Túpac Amaru II’s Rebellion according to Structural Demographic Theory
Sophomore Lynnfield High School, MA, USA
The rebellion of Túpac Amaru II, occurring in 1780–1783 in the southern Cusco region and the Real Audiencia of Charcas in the Viceroyalty of Peru, present-day Peru and Bolivia and stretching into Ec...
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Authors
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Peter Turchin is Project Leader at the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna. His books include End Times (2023), Ultrasociety (2015), and The Great Holocene Transformation (2025).
High schooler, I like studying the history of colonial Peru and South America, along with geography and music, and other fun stuff.
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