Coffee's Substack
Coffee CapitalMy personal Substack
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 14 | Founded | 3 months ago | Last Issue | 12 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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coffeecapital.substack.comLatest Issues
Worst September for 10Y Yields Since 2022 - What Now?
Bond Seasonality
The U.S. 10Y finished the month +54bps around 5.29%, making it the worst September since 2022, when it rose +64bps during one of the worst bear markets for bonds in recent memory.
Seasonally speaking, October is just...
What Is The Basis Trade, and Why Does It Matter?
Primer: Basis Trade Mechanics
At a high level, the basis trade captures the price difference between cash Treasury bonds and Treasury futures contracts. Basis trades are typically done by hedge funds where the cash and repo legs are ex...
U.S. FOMC Debrief
Recap
The U.S. FOMC hiked interest rates by 25bps today from 3.75% to 4.00%. This move was expected by the market (>90% chance) with last Friday’s inflation report moving the odds significantly higher. I will dive into the details, but...
Everything You Need to Know About the Bond Market Right Now
The Buybacks
The Treasury announced their plan to buy up to $6 billion of 10 - 30Y debt, which is triple the current maximum size of $2 billion per operation. Recall that last month, Bessent noted that the size would be increased to at...
Treasuries Are Attractive Here
Bonds around the world are beaten down. The headlines are constant. I am not going to spend this article going over the reasons - rather, I am going to explain why long bonds may be a successful trade over the near to medium term.
Mark...
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CFA Charterholder || MACRO — MARKETS — INVESTING || Institutional Investor || Not financial or investment advice. Twitter/X: @coffee__capital
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