Coffee's Substack
Coffee CapitalMy personal Substack
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 9 | Founded | 2 months ago | Last Issue | 13 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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coffeecapital.substack.comLatest Issues
Why Negative Swap Spreads Matter
What Is a Swap?
First, a quick primer. A swap is just an agreement to exchange cash flows with a counterparty over a period of time. That is the simplest definition. You can exchange fixed cash flows for other fixed cash flows, fixed...
U.S. Weekly Economic Data + Bond Market Reaction
CPI: Soft
Let’s start with inflation. Although it was expected to be a market mover, it was a benign print with both core (+0.2% m/m) and headline (+0.1% m/m) coming in line with what the market expected. This put the yearly figures f...
U.S. NFP Preview: Another Sell-Off?
To understand where the labor market might be heading, it is helpful to first look back at the report from the previous month. In June, the +57K U.S. NFP gain was far below market consensus of +113K. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% (lowe...
U.S. FOMC Holds Rates - Press Conference Thoughts and Market Reaction
The U.S. FOMC held rates at 3.75% in a somewhat contested decision given the implied market pricing for a hike (~30% just before the meeting) and dissents from committee members.
Two key points regarding the meeting itself:
- The 3 di...
Inflation Is Not Driving Rates Higher
U.S. Treasury yields are on the rise again lately, with significant moves across the curve over the past few trading sessions. Since July 17, the 2Y is up ~28bps, the 10Y is up ~14bps, and the 30Y is up ~10bps (see below).
Given the headl...
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The writers behind this newsletter.
CFA Charterholder || MACRO — MARKETS — INVESTING || Institutional Investor || Not financial or investment advice. Twitter/X: @coffee__capital
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