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Countdown to 2026

Brad Van Arnum

I write about the 2026 midterm elections, and which Senate/House seats Democrats should try to flip blue.

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Substack
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Latest Issues

Recent posts by this newsletter. Browse the email archive.

What if the Midterms Were Held This Week?

Hi everyone, I hope you’ve been enjoying summer so far! Back in April, I posted a list of House seats that I felt were worth watching as we approach the midterms next year. I’ve been updating that list regularly, and I now have ratings for ...

5 months ago
35
11

Thirty House Races to Watch (Updated 10/11/25)

Note: This piece, initially posted in April, has been updated multiple times, most recently in the middle of October. I’ve made sure to account for the ever-changing redistricting landscape, and the ratings for each House seat reflect my la...

7 months ago
46
26

The Key Senate Races of 2026

In just 600 or so days, 35 Senate seats will be up for election. This group of Senators last faced voters in 2020, in a political environment that was somewhat Democratic, but not overwhelmingly so. Prior to that, in 2014, this class of Sen...

9 months ago
59
40

Pennsylvania: The Ultimate Swing State

Today will be my final post about the 2024 election, and for those of you eager to look ahead rather than back, I share the sentiment. Next month’s post will be about the key Senate races of 2026, and in general, my focus will be on the mid...

10 months ago
25
9

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Authors

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  • Brad Van Arnum

    My free newsletter, Countdown to 2026, focuses on the key Senate/House races Democrats should target in the upcoming midterm elections.

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