Investment research on the structural break generative AI is creating across public and private markets. For allocators, investors, and operators.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Twice weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 152 | Founded | 5 years ago | Last Issue | 4 days ago |
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decodingdiscontinuity.comLatest Issues
The Hyperscaler Settlement: Free Cash Flow Does Not Turn Positive Before 2030
Image via Unsplash by Logan Voss
Part 3 in the series after The Hyperscaler Reckoning (5 May) and The Hyperscaler Dispersion (4 August).
TL;DR: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft reported about $203 billion of Q3 2026 capex on company-...
It’s All About Compute: Anthropic’s S-1 Leaves Its Biggest Bill Blank
Photo: Allison Saeng, Unsplash
TL;DR: This analysis is my initial read on the Anthropic S-1. For now, I want to focus on what struck me most: the scale of compute requirements and my view that the tools and metrics being used to measure th...
Two Tenants Part II: Anthropic's Run Rate Doubles in 2027. The Work Behind It Quadruples.
My model puts Anthropic’s December 2027 run rate at $169 billion. Token volume nearly quadruples, while falling prices and agent competition shape who captures the revenue.
TL;DR: The run rate is four things multiplied together: how much A...
Is the AI Build-Out a Bubble? The 2000 Lesson Is About Debt, Not Chips
Why the 2026 AI build-out differs from 2000: demand is real, but compute landlords such as CoreWeave and Nscale face debt tied to future AI rents.
TL;DR: A bubble is not a price. It is a funding structure that needs new money on a schedule...
Two Tenants Part 1: Anthropic Does Not Have ARR. Neither Does OpenAI.
OpenAI and Anthropic’s annualized revenue figures are misleading because they combine subscriptions, model calls, cloud sales, and agents into a single number.
TL;DR: Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic has ARR. Each headline is the sum of five s...
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Authors
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano is founder and CIO of Decoding Discontinuity, a research and investment platform founded in 2024, where she is incubating a market-neutral fund on an Agentic Era thesis built on ARAF™ and the Durable Growth Moat™.
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