Defy the Odds
Systematic macro research, capital flows, and actionable trade and investment ideas. For serious investors who want an edge, not opinions.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 201 | Founded | a year ago | Last Issue | 2 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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defytheodds88.substack.comLatest Issues
Defy the Odds: Year One
One year ago I wrote my first post on Substack. It was about the coming rotation to real assets. A call to buy gold, copper and rotate to value. One year has passed and that call still stands.
Back then I launched my Substack because every...
Checkmate: Where the Iran War Meets El Niño
The one input shortage that neither reserves nor China can fix.
When the Iran war broke out, the picture looked clear. We had a map: oil was the smallest problem, diesel was the real killer, LNG was already broken, fertilizer was the sleep...
Three Risks Are Converging on the Bond Market, but There Are Still Places to Hide
Monday Macro Playbook: Bessent showed his pain threshold. The market is about to test it.
This post is the foundation of the week. The market big picture from a systematic framework: where we are in the cycle, where we are going, when to b...
Everyone Is Watching the Wrong Repricing: The Cycle Turned Three Weeks Ago
Intermarket Macro Map: An anti-bond rotation, not a full risk-on turn.
How to use the Intermarket Macro Map
Disney's 60-Year-Old Trendline: Is It a Buy?
We asked three key questions to find out if the turnaround is real.
Disney just dropped the first trailer for Ahsoka season 2. As a lifelong Star Wars fan, I walked in with zero expectations. The Mandalorian and Grogu took care of those.
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Systematic macro research, capital flows, and actionable trade and investment ideas. For serious investors who want an edge.
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