Defy the Odds
Systematic macro research, capital flows, and actionable trade and investment ideas. For serious investors who want an edge, not opinions.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 145 | Founded | 9 months ago | Last Issue | 7 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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defytheodds88.substack.comLatest Issues
What You Do When the Bond Market Has Had Enough
In just a few weeks, the bond market realized there is a global energy crisis going on.
When the Bond Market Speaks
When the bond market meets the physical reality
Right on schedule.
This week NVIDIA and Walmart earnings drop into a global bond market rout, while the market finally wakes up to what the closure of the Strait does to the system. The damage is locked in, because even if the Strait opene...
Intermarket Big Picture: The Stagflation Vibe Quietly Takes Shape
Four parts of the market cracked in the same week, and together they describe a cocktail the playbook does not have a clean name for.
How to use the Intermarket Macro Map
Mapping the Damage from the Iran War: The Day of Reckoning
The warranty expired. The bond market said it first.
Two months into the war, the markets look like they do not care. The earlier parts of this series mapped the timeline for when inflation would break through and when scarcity would becom...
How Long Can the Market Look Through the Iran War?
Why the Iran war is locking in stagflation, even as the market melts up.
Ever since the Iran war started, there have been two camps. One says the market is strong enough to look through the effects of the war. So far, they are winning.
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Mapping liquidity cycles and cross-asset flows to front-run macro regime shifts, turning them into concrete futures and equity trades.
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