Defy the Odds
Systematic macro research, capital flows, and actionable trade and investment ideas. For serious investors who want an edge, not opinions.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 225 | Founded | a year ago | Last Issue | 4 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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defytheodds88.substack.comLatest Issues
Euro Crisis 2.0: Who Falls Next, and the Trade I'm Waiting For
France was the first domino. The market is already looking for the next one.
French bond spreads (against Germany) have just hit levels not seen since the euro crisis. From that alone, it is easy to think of what happened in 2011. But when...
The Debt Math Turns Against France by 2030: The First Wave Is Already Here
The problem is cyclical, therefore it is tradable.
There is a rule in financial markets: when the trouble starts in the US, the biggest loser is rarely the US. The financial crisis was the prime example. It started in America, and it was t...
The Stealth Bear Market Meets Global Debt Trouble. I Found a Trade That Doesn’t Care
Monday Macro Playbook: Only a few trends are working, and the Anomaly Radar is flashing red.
This post is the foundation of the week. The market big picture from a systematic framework: where we are in the cycle, where we are going, when t...
Equities are Testing the Limits
Intermarket Macro Map: AI leadership strengthens, but the bond market refuses to ease. What gives first?
How to use the Intermarket Macro Map
Market Rotation: The Bet Behind Every Trade
When to stay with the leaders, when to rotate, and when the rules have changed.
There is an important concept in investing called market rotation. It sits at the heart of how I read the market. You may not use the term, but it affects your...
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Systematic macro research, capital flows, and actionable trade and investment ideas. For serious investors who want an edge.
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