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Defy the Odds

Systematic macro research, capital flows, and actionable trade and investment ideas. For serious investors who want an edge, not opinions.

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Substack
PricingFreemiumPublishesDaily
Issues191Foundeda year agoLast Issue4 days ago
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Latest Issues

The Macro Endgame: Navigating the Physical and Financial Bottlenecks

As I mentioned in my previous note, I am taking a step back from the screens this week to recharge. While my first reading list focused on navigating immediate market volatility and the ongoing capital rotation, today I want to zoom out and...

4 days ago
11

What Actually Happens When the Term Premium Rises

Moving past the narrative: What the current regime tells us about asset allocation, currency regimes, and real-rate repricing.

Right now the stock market faces many dangers. This is not fear-mongering.

6 days ago
16
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The Macro Roadmap: 10 Essential Reads for the Second Half of the Year

Just a brief update to let you know I am officially on vacation this week. I have mentioned this a couple of times in the chat already, but I wanted to drop a quick note here for anyone who might miss the chat updates

While I am stepping b...

8 days ago
21

The Great Rotation Intensifies as the Fed Opens the Valves

Intermarket Macro Map: China is on the radar.

How to use the Intermarket Macro Map

9 days ago
20
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The Rules of the Game Just Changed: The Next Leg of the AI Rally Goes Here

A Macro to Micro approach to what to buy next.

On Thuesday the market staged a sharp rebound off support. The question most of us is asking is always the same: was that the low, and if it was, what do you buy into it?

10 days ago
16
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  • Defy the Odds

    Systematic macro research, capital flows, and actionable trade and investment ideas. For serious investors who want an edge.

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