Defy the Odds
Systematic macro research, capital flows, and actionable trade and investment ideas. For serious investors who want an edge, not opinions.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 229 | Founded | a year ago | Last Issue | 18 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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defytheodds88.substack.comLatest Issues
While Everyone Watches AI, We're Buying Something Else
Plus a one sided US setup worth a look.
In the last few weeks, I have made the case that more and more facts point toward a trickier market environment, and last week I sold all of our AI exposure and shorted the Nasdaq.
Trading Gold Based on the Debasement Narrative Is a Losing Strategy
The real drivers of gold, and the bullish and bearish case built on them.
2026 was the best year for gold investors. It provided every textbook reason to buy: war, inflation, economic uncertainty, and a term premium shock evolving into a s...
The Market’s Big Picture and an ETF Defying Macro Headwinds
Monday Macro Playbook: Europe’s debt risks, my Nasdaq hedge, and where I still see opportunity.
This post is the foundation of the week. The market big picture from a systematic framework: where we are in the cycle, where we are going, whe...
The Market Is Losing Its Leaders
Intermarket Macro Map: AI stocks have little room for disappointment, and bond pressure persists.
How to use the Intermarket Macro Map
Euro Crisis 2.0: Who Falls Next, and the Trade I'm Waiting For
France was the first domino. The market is already looking for the next one.
French bond spreads (against Germany) have just hit levels not seen since the euro crisis. From that alone, it is easy to think of what happened in 2011. But when...
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Systematic macro research, capital flows, and actionable trade and investment ideas. For serious investors who want an edge.
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