Defy the Odds
Systematic macro research, capital flows, and actionable trade and investment ideas. For serious investors who want an edge, not opinions.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 213 | Founded | a year ago | Last Issue | 5 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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defytheodds88.substack.comLatest Issues
What If the Market Is Repricing Warsh?
But there is a dovish twist.
The Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points. No surprise, as the market had assigned a 90% probability to a hike. If the Fed had held rates, its credibility would have come into question and the long end would have...
Gold at an Inflection Point: The Fed, Real Rates, and the Debasement Trade
The Gold Thesis Is Intact. But the Setup Has Changed.
In July, we correctly called the gold bottom. Our thesis was simple. Gold proved resilient against oil prices, while the debasement trade was lurking back, and real rates were at levels...
Risk Convergence Is Not a Theory Anymore
Monday Macro Playbook: Iran, the Fed and the AI story hit in the same week.
This post is the foundation of the week. The market big picture from a systematic framework: where we are in the cycle, where we are going, when to be careful, and...
Slowing AI Model Development: Winners, Losers, and the Next Trade
Three scenarios for the AI trade, the winners and losers, and the signals that will tell us what comes next.
Anthropic and OpenAI and now Musk have just announced that they want to slow down the development of AI models. Dario Amodei even...
Higher Rates Have Found Their Losers. Where Are the Winners?
Intermarket Macro Map: three risks converge on the market.
Next week’s Fed decision arrives with major equity indices consolidating, even as significant rotations unfold beneath the surface. The AI trade is building a constructive base, wh...
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Systematic macro research, capital flows, and actionable trade and investment ideas. For serious investors who want an edge.
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