The Variant View
Value investing and special situations driven by a behavioural edge in mispriced large caps and event-driven options. Unconstrained by industry convention. Comfortable diverging from consensus opinion.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 25 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 7 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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divergentcapital7651.substack.comLatest Issues
The Price of Pessimism: What the Market Implies and What the Evidence Supports for Charter Communications ($CHTR)
Executive Summary
Charter trades near $132, roughly half of our estimated intrinsic value of about $230 to $290. At that price, the market is valuing the company as though its unlevered free cash flow will decline in perpetuity. The op...
Sovereign Alchemy: Critical Mineral Structural Scarcity, Import Dependence, & Economic Beneficiaries.
Introduction
Dear Readers,
This post is a first for The Variant View. The report, available as a downloadable PDF file for paid subscribers beyond the paywall, presents a thematic report on the key trends, implications, and potential ec...
A Value Unlock of Rogers Communications' ($RCI.B) Trophy Sports Assets Worth 58–98% of its Market Cap is Still in Play
All financial figures cited are in CAD unless otherwise stated.
Introduction
Rogers’ Communications’ share price has suffered a ~15% drawdown over the past few weeks, apparently due to TD Cowen downgrading the stock from a “buy” to a “...
Discerning Signal from Noise: Why Meta's Advertising Franchise is Materially Mispriced
The mispricing is driven by obfuscating consolidated reporting, increasing capex, and fears of capital incineration. These fears are dispelled by the facts, with ~39% upside to base case IV ($795).
Introduction
Honeywell's Spinoff Implies ~39% Upside Without Requiring Either Business to Trade Above Its Peer Median Valuation Multiple
Honeywell Sotp Analysis Report
198KB ∙ PDF file
Download
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Investment Thesis Summary
The Setup
- Honeywell trades at a blended ~17x EV/EBITDA — a conglomerate multiple applied to two businesses with fundamentally differe...
Key Facts
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Value investing and special situations.
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