Weekly analysis on global politcal/econ affairs
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 216 | Founded | 4 years ago | Last Issue | 8 days ago |
| Active | Language |  ZH-CN | |||
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五仁随笔260829——乐极生悲
八月的资本市场比七月的大幅下杀要略安静——一方面不少人仍在夏天假期之中，而市场对于ai资本开支下滑的担忧，被英伟达的超预期财报给拉了回来。9月底10月初，传说中的anthropic 将会登上历史舞台，成为史上估值最高的ipo之一，看起来这个市场并没有任何问题。真正的担忧似乎在宏观层面，美债利率又一次承压，主要是日本这个血包扛不住了，日本持续的汇率受损，不得不让贝森特出面干预，但纯属于按下葫芦起了瓢。美国的联邦整体债务正在加速出现飙升的局面，在日本这个大血包不够用，中国减持美债...
五仁随笔260718——狂潮
几许欢与笑 多少爱和恨 那狂潮卷起 灿烂又缤纷
几许欢与笑 多少爱和恨 那狂潮卷起 灿烂又缤纷
五仁随笔260607——崩老头的岂止是追觅
围绕追觅的舆情似乎还在不断发酵，一些地方政府开始清查和追觅联合成立的基金，俞浩的微博也被屏蔽，而这一切源自于兽爷的那一篇《清华天才崩老头》。中国向来的文化就是枪打出头鸟，闷声大发财，特别不喜欢爱显摆的，而尤其不喜欢显摆到天上、且更新频次过于频繁的。企业家的嘴何时闭上已经成了一门必修课，因为它代价太高昂。然而，最悲哀的就是，崩老头只是科创IPO财政的一种变形，或者是在一级市场的提前绽放，而非是一种独特的商业现象。俞浩只是那个最具戏剧张力的，而所有人其实都在做同样的路径依赖的事情...
五仁随笔260518——中美难言稳定
举世瞩目的北京习特会圆满结束。媒体的目光似乎集中在两人的行程细节上，吃啥喝啥看啥，有没有花絮和集锦。甚少观察人士把“实质”作为此次中美元首会谈的中心议题，仿佛商量好了一样，只谈风月，莫谈国事。从懂王的角度，此次的中美会谈的核心就在于向国内释放“我搞定了中国”这个核心的形象，中方也在接待规格上予以了尽可能的配合。从中方的角度，对外国资本释放中美战略稳定的信号，意味明显——中国需要通过股权市场的繁荣来增加其财政储备，从而增强自己和美国战略竞争的能力。与此同时，在台湾问题上，川普的...
五仁随笔260507——科创ipo财政已成为系统性风险
4月28日，曦智科技在香港交易所敲钟，当天高开380%，后来盘中市值一度接近1000亿港币。曦智的发行获得了6000倍超额认购，然而其去年全年营收为1亿人民币，亏损14亿，三年累计亏损25亿。这并非孤例，在2026年一季度，港股ipo募资超过1000亿，激增5倍，远超全球。目前港交所排队企业高达500家之多，全年募资总额有望突破4000多亿港币。资本市场在狂欢这是“中国硬科技的全球重估”，然而这场所谓盛宴的真正埋单人是谁？当地方政府以“耐心资本”之名，行科创IPO之实，将财政...
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East8 is my field notebook from UTC+8: AI, capital, geopolitics, and Asia’s new builders. Honghub is where this thesis is tested in practice.
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