East8’s Newsletter
East8, BaiguanWeekly analysis on global politcal/econ affairs
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 204 | Subscribers | Read | east8.substack.com |
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五仁随笔260104——加拉加斯斩杀线
2026年新年伊始，懂王就来了波大的，把之前包好的“饺子”给煮了——执政十数年的马杜罗被“活捉”，而美国兵不血刃地完成了这波斩首行动。从雨果·查韦斯开始，委内瑞拉的反美历史已长达数十年，居然一夕堡垒被内部攻破，也可算是多年来经济上倒行逆施的终极因果。而对中国的隐忧，不仅仅是所谓“全天候伙伴”的丧失，更重要的是中国在拉美的利益，面临着严重的威胁，而这才是地缘上面真正的大隐患。前几天还在炒作“斩杀线”的舆论，现在看到了美国的下限可以是无限低的，既可以卖友邦，也可以活捉敌人，那死几...
五仁随笔 251231—今时不同往日
昨日，manus 被 meta 收购的消息在朋友圈再次刷屏，也引起了很多方面的关注和讨论。如果单就这个公司和交易来看，堪称教科书级别的经典案例。公司从零做起，收入蹭蹭上升，很快被收购完成华丽转身，投资人赚得盆满钵满。然而，今时不同往日，在美对华科技铁幕渐渐落下之时，中国的 talent pool 被直接面临一个二选一的尴尬处境，而这才是未来一到五年，中国所面临的另一大重大考验。
五仁随笔251222——中国的k型复苏
今年分析美国经济的分析师们往往会用一个词叫K型复苏，它具体表现为消费、就业、工资和财富的K型分化——高收入群体的消费和收入增速明显高于低收入人群，而他们两者的剪刀差不断扩大。中国是没有很好的收入人群统计的，但正在我看来，中国的K型复苏更加严重，因为社会的增长点完全转移到了资本市场。
五仁随笔251201——人民币所谓升值预期是个大乌龙
最近的中国经济舆论场并不平静。其中最具话题度的莫过于单伟健所提出的人民币理应升值。在和百观的robert讨论中，我已讲到单论点中的荒谬之处。单行文开始说香港人每个周末北上，说明中国物价便宜；然后他说从购买力评价角度，中国gdp已经比美国高很多，更应该升值；然后就说到中国的消费预期不足，仍依赖出口，因此更因让人民币升值。这些观点让老外听的是格外精神——因为老外觉得中国商品太贵，已经影响到整体欧美的产品竞争力，云云。但是一个货币的贬值和升值，并不是简单看购买力评价，抑或是跨个境买...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Welcome to East 8, a bold new video and podcast series rooted in the heartbeat of the world’s most dynamic time zone—UTC+8. Home to over 1.6 billion people and economies that drive one-third of global GDP.
Baiguan - China Insights, Data, Context Your trusted source for credible, multi-faceted and actionable insights about China.
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