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East8’s Newsletter

East8

Weekly analysis on global politcal/econ affairs

Platform
Substack
PricingFreemiumPublishesWeekly
Issues214Founded4 years agoLast Issue7 days ago
Active
Language
ZH-CN

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Latest Issues

五仁随笔260607——崩老头的岂止是追觅

围绕追觅的舆情似乎还在不断发酵,一些地方政府开始清查和追觅联合成立的基金,俞浩的微博也被屏蔽,而这一切源自于兽爷的那一篇《清华天才崩老头》。中国向来的文化就是枪打出头鸟,闷声大发财,特别不喜欢爱显摆的,而尤其不喜欢显摆到天上、且更新频次过于频繁的。企业家的嘴何时闭上已经成了一门必修课,因为它代价太高昂。然而,最悲哀的就是,崩老头只是科创IPO财政的一种变形,或者是在一级市场的提前绽放,而非是一种独特的商业现象。俞浩只是那个最具戏剧张力的,而所有人其实都在做同样的路径依赖的事情...

7 days ago
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五仁随笔260518——中美难言稳定

举世瞩目的北京习特会圆满结束。媒体的目光似乎集中在两人的行程细节上,吃啥喝啥看啥,有没有花絮和集锦。甚少观察人士把“实质”作为此次中美元首会谈的中心议题,仿佛商量好了一样,只谈风月,莫谈国事。从懂王的角度,此次的中美会谈的核心就在于向国内释放“我搞定了中国”这个核心的形象,中方也在接待规格上予以了尽可能的配合。从中方的角度,对外国资本释放中美战略稳定的信号,意味明显——中国需要通过股权市场的繁荣来增加其财政储备,从而增强自己和美国战略竞争的能力。与此同时,在台湾问题上,川普的...

a month ago
3
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五仁随笔260507——科创ipo财政已成为系统性风险

4月28日,曦智科技在香港交易所敲钟,当天高开380%,后来盘中市值一度接近1000亿港币。曦智的发行获得了6000倍超额认购,然而其去年全年营收为1亿人民币,亏损14亿,三年累计亏损25亿。这并非孤例,在2026年一季度,港股ipo募资超过1000亿,激增5倍,远超全球。目前港交所排队企业高达500家之多,全年募资总额有望突破4000多亿港币。资本市场在狂欢这是“中国硬科技的全球重估”,然而这场所谓盛宴的真正埋单人是谁?当地方政府以“耐心资本”之名,行科创IPO之实,将财政...

a month ago
7
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五仁随笔260427——历史呼召、何以自况?

有段时间没有更新了,并不是不想更新,而是世界变化太快——从美伊从交火到停战,从ai世界不断涌现新模型却不断挤压中小公司空间,从香港的ipo热。如果每个话题都评点一番,却没有长期思考的话,那就背离了我写作的初衷了。我希望我的读者能够不管怎样,从我的文字中读出一些对未来较长时间内的思考和心得,而不仅仅是一些短期的一些即时反应。最近体会比较深的一句话,是喜剧演员Trevor Noah 最新的脱口秀上的一句问题:“who will you be when the history ca...

2 months ago
7
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五仁随笔260331——天下是否有变

我在22年和23年分别写过文章论天下有变的判断,大致意思是天下有变条件未具备,尽管中国做好了准备,但仍需静待时局机。时过境迁,丙午年懂王错误出兵伊朗,以致经济混乱、军事乱斗、民怨沸腾。那现在的问题是:天下是否有变?

我在22年和23年分别写过文章论天下有变的判断,大致意思是天下有变条件未具备,尽管中国做好了准备,但仍需静待时局机。时过境迁,丙午年懂王错误出兵伊朗,以致经济混乱、军事乱斗、民怨沸腾。那现在的问题是:天下是否有变?

2 months ago
2
Paid

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