
Weekly analysis on global politcal/econ affairs
| Platform | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Weekly | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 210 | Subscribers | Read | east8.substack.com |
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我在22年和23年分别写过文章论天下有变的判断,大致意思是天下有变条件未具备,尽管中国做好了准备,但仍需静待时局机。时过境迁,丙午年懂王错误出兵伊朗,以致经济混乱、军事乱斗、民怨沸腾。那现在的问题是:天下是否有变?
看起来懂王栽了个大跟头,伊朗非但没有被打趴下,甚至还在重新建立霍尔木兹海峡的航行秩序。以色列似乎一点也没讨到便宜,而海湾国家则其实是最大的受害者,累计近十年的地区相对和平与安定被破坏,资本外流几乎成为大概率事件。懂王为什么会犯错?马杜罗的一击制胜,自然是极大增大了他的野心和自信。在他看来,除了中国和俄罗斯等少数几个国家之外,其他国家都是蝼蚁一般可以碾压的势力。而当情报送达他这边可以一击制胜哈梅内伊之时,他便做出了赌博式的决定。
第一章:烟草抗议
首先祝各位专栏的读者丙午马年新年快乐,心想事成,阖家安康!
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