Economic Defense
Amir GorenThe labor share of income, read monthly: margin sustainability, equity duration, the AI capex cycle. Dated, thresholded, with a track record. From the Economic Defense Fund.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 62 | Founded | 5 years ago | Last Issue | 13 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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econdef.substack.comLatest Issues
Sunday Signposts: Credit Cracks While Inflation Cools
The inflation call got weaker this week, the bond market got louder, and the October 14 price report still decides which story wins.
The inflation call got weaker this week, the bond market got louder, and the October 14 price report still...
Sunday Signposts: Long Rates Take Over the Story
For the first time this cycle, long-term rates moved more than short-term ones, and the report that settles the inflation question lands October 14.
Our call this week is unchanged, and it is still provisional. We describe the economy as s...
Note #1 is out, and the paid tier opens today
Note #1 of The Labor Share Letter went out this morning, free in full to everyone on this list. It is the sample: labor share, margins, Main Street, the regime call, and next month's thresholds, in six to eight pages.
From the October issu...
The Labor Share Letter opens today
For months this newsletter has argued one thing from several directions: the labor share of income is the variable that decides whether record profit margins last, how long equity cash flows really are, and whether the AI capital spending c...
The Labor Share Letter, Note #1: The Fed Raised Rates and Said Nothing About Pay
Update, October 6, 2026.
Two things in this note have changed since it was published.
The numbers: the government’s annual revision of September 30 lowered both second-quarter readings. Workers’ share is now 54.6 percent, down 0.8 points...
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