Economic Defense
Amir GorenThe labor share of income, read monthly: margin sustainability, equity duration, the AI capex cycle. Dated, thresholded, with a track record. From the Economic Defense Fund.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 70 | Founded | 5 years ago | Last Issue | 10 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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econdef.substack.comLatest Issues
Whatever the Fed Decides on Wednesday, It Cannot Fix This
The Federal Reserve announces its next rate decision on Wednesday, October 28. Whichever way it goes, the number I watch most will not move.
What workers' share says
Take ordinary businesses outside banking and insurance, which sta...
Sunday Signposts: Oil Breaks Out, Credit Cracks Wider, and the Fed Waits
Oil topped $116, the riskiest corporate bonds hit a new high in borrowing costs, and the Fed looks set to wait.
Our call is unchanged: the economy is in stagflation, meaning prices run hot while growth slows. What moved was oil. Brent crud...
The Labor Share Letter, Note #2: Prices, Not Pay, Squeezed Paychecks in September
Real pay growth fell to its weakest since March 2021 while workers' share of company output sits at a record low. The Fed decides on October 28 whether to raise rates into that.
The month in one paragraph
Sunday Signposts: Hot Prices, and a Market Betting on the Fed Holding
Prices ran hot again this week, futures now bet the Fed will wait anyway, and bonds of one company building data centers for artificial intelligence yield about 14.8%.
Our call is unchanged, and it is no longer provisional. We describe the...
The Code Is Paying Firms to Pick the Wrong Kind of AI
There are two arguments about artificial intelligence worth having, and one that is not. The one not worth having is whether to slow AI down, tax it, or protect work a machine does better. Every version of that makes the country poorer.
Th...
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