
Uncovering the outlook for monetary policy and financial markets through institutional grade research on the US and global economy.
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While there has been relatively little news of significant banking stress in recent quarters, a deeper look at commercial bank lending data reveals some concerns.
While concerns surrounding the Fed’s significant monetary policy tightening...
While many have concluded that tariffs will only serve to push inflation higher, early data shows the opposite effect.
While US tariff policy has left many investors and the Federal Reserve concerned about the implications for the inflatio...
While the CPI is expected to see material further disinflation on a headline and core basis in 1H25, neither index is expected to fall to 2% by June: though the story could be different for the PCEPI.
My latest Medium-Term US Inflation Upd...
Driven by a significant increase in adjusted core services prices, US inflation came in above consensus expectations in September.
Headline and core CPI growth come in above expectations
Another large decline in gasoline prices is expected to see annual headline CPI growth move materially lower in September, but the core CPI is anticipated to remain elevated.
Significant headline disinflation expected in September, but not...
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The writers behind this newsletter.
Economist | Unraveling the US economy, with a focus on inflation, jobs & the money supply | Former sell-side research analyst
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