Unpacking the current state of, and outlook for, the US and global economy, with a particular focus on inflation.
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While the PCE Price Index saw another month of elevated growth in March, a number of key factors are likely to contribute to a significant lessening of price pressures as the year unfolds.
A deeper look at the latest US GDP data reveals continued robust growth, while 2Q24 GDP is set to be materially supported by a favourable comparable — though growth could materially weaken in 2H24.
Just as markets got ahead of themselves by pricing in a peak of seven 2024 rate cuts in January, the recent string of hotter CPI reports may have caused an overreaction in the opposite direction.
As opposed to various private sector measures of spot market rents, the best leading indicator of OER & RPR is an alternative rental index produced by the BLS — it points to major disinflation ahead.
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Economist | Unraveling all things macro: with a focus on inflation & the money supply | Writes Economics Uncovered \ud83d\udcd6
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