Uncovering the outlook for monetary policy and financial markets through institutional grade research on the US and global economy.
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While the CPI is expected to see material further disinflation on a headline and core basis in 1H25, neither index is expected to fall to 2% by June: though the story could be different for the PCEPI.
Driven by a significant increase in adjusted core services prices, US inflation came in above consensus expectations in September.
Another large decline in gasoline prices is expected to see annual headline CPI growth move materially lower in September, but the core CPI is anticipated to remain elevated.
While a lower unemployment rate and a sharp rise in nonfarm payrolls represent positive shifts, many concerning trends remain within the broad array of US employment data.
The writers behind this newsletter.
Economist | Unraveling the US economy, with a focus on inflation, jobs & the money supply | Former sell-side research analyst
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