EM FX Macro
Stephen ElgieEmerging Markets Macro FX ideas and strategy
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 40 | Founded | 3 years ago | Last Issue | a month ago |
| Active | |||||
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emfxmacro.substack.comLatest Issues
The China Manufacturing Gravity Well
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The ageing reflex
China’s manufacturing success is creating gravitational forces that are reshaping the development paths available to EM economies. In this note, I’ll unpack what that means.
Earlier in my career, th...
Hegemon Without Discipline
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Just as macro traders had settled into the latest cottage industry of becoming temporary experts on AI, hyperscaler capex and the vulnerability of EM services exporters, a much older threat reasserted itself. We pivoted ab...
EMFX in 2026: Surviving The Saboteur
11 Jan 2026
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As macro risk-takers looked ahead to the usual new-year grind, with P&Ls reset to zero (or worse), the leader of the free world was holding court at Mar-a-Lago. Tariff effects were fading into the rear-view mirro...
USD: The Truths Hurt
In this note, I’ll discuss:
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The USD bounce - which I see as a lull that led to a position unwind.
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Sabotaging the USD revisited - I review the bear case for the USD.
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Tariffs and Immigration policy - I view these as brand damag...
Three-Body Macro Chaos
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Sitting in the White House Oval Office, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa kept his composure while Donald Trump casually tossed false claims of genocide at him. The man who rails against fake news once again supported h...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
EM Macro Strategist and Portfolio Manager from multiple hedge funds over a 20-year career.
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