Justified Posteriors
Andrey Fradkin, Seth Benzell, Rohit Krishnan, Basil Halperin, Alex ImasHome of the Justified Posteriors podcast + essays on economics from Andrey Fradkin and Seth Benzell.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 53 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 10 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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empiricrafting.substack.comLatest Issues
Improving our posteriors
The coming years will be filled with even more discourse and research about the economics of AI. As Seth likes to say: when writing research papers becomes cheaper, the returns to reading and synthesizing that research go up. We want to be...
Avi Goldfarb on Prediction Machines, O-Ring Tasks, and How AI is Reshaping Economics
This week, we’re joined by Avi Goldfarb, one of the leading economists of artificial intelligence and co-author of Prediction Machines. Avi has been thinking seriously about AI economics long before the ChatGPT shock, so we asked him what h...
Agent, Know Thyself! (and bid accordingly)
Written with Rohit Krishnan, who is a pioneer in studying LLM behavior and writes at Strange Loop Canon.
Attention conservation notice: We developed a new benchmark, MarketBench, and scaffold. Based on our findings, we argue that self-...
The classic model that shows why AI exposure could increase wages
This week, instead of reviewing a recent paper on AI, we go back to a 1993 classic: Michael Kremer’s “The O-Ring Theory of Economic Development.” It’s one of those papers that feels larger than its formal model. The setup is extremely simpl...
The Most Important Philosophical Treatise of the 21st Century?
This week, instead of reviewing an economics paper, we reviewed a work of philosophy—perhaps the most important one of this young millennium so far. Anthropic published its new constitution for Claude in January 2026, and we read the whole...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Professor writing about AI, digital technology, marketing, economics, and academia. Also, some personal introspection along the way.
Co-Host of Justified Posteriors Podcast https://empiricrafting.substack.com/podcast
Essays at http://www.strangeloopcanon.com | Building God at https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CJ9F327M |
Professor at UChicago Booth. Doing research on Economics and Applied AI.
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