EPB Research
Eric Basmajian, Prometheus ResearchMost economic research tells you what already happened. EPB Research studies the business cycle through its repeatable sequence to identify changes before they become obvious in the headline data.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 76 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 13 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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blog.epbresearch.comLatest Issues
Jobless Claims Look Exceptionally Strong. Why Doesn’t the Labor Market Feel That Way?
The labor market is giving two very different signals at the same time.
Layoffs are unusually rare.
Initial jobless claims have fallen sharply, and after adjusting for the size of the covered workforce, they are essentially at their lowes...
Why the 10-Year Yield Rose After a "Weak" Jobs Report
The September employment report looked weak at first glance.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, the unemployment rate edged higher, and July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell immedi...
The Economy Can’t Sustain Positive Real Interest Rates Like It Used To
New to EPB Research? Every Sunday, I publish a free research note on where the business cycle stands, what is changing, and whether recession risk is rising or falling.
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Investors often judge...
Housing Has Been Weak for Years. Why Hasn’t It Caused a Recession?
Before you dive into the post, I wanted to let you know that EPB Research offers a 7-day free trial.
EPB Research helps sophisticated investors avoid costly macro-driven portfolio mistakes by separating ordinary economic noise from changes...
Corporate Profits Doubled. Why Didn’t Household Income Fall?
After-tax corporate profits averaged 5.1% of GDP from 1985 through 1995.
Over the twelve quarters ending in Q2 2026, after-tax corporate profits averaged 11.9% of GDP.
Relative to the size of the economy, the after-tax corporate profit sh...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Founder of EPB Research, an independent macroeconomic research firm. I study the business cycle through a consistent framework designed to understand where the economy stands, how conditions are changing, and where risks are building.
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