EPB Research
Eric Basmajian, Prometheus ResearchMost economic research tells you what already happened. EPB Research studies the business cycle through its repeatable sequence to identify changes before they become obvious in the headline data.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 73 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 5 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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blog.epbresearch.comLatest Issues
Housing Has Been Weak for Years. Why Hasn’t It Caused a Recession?
Housing has been one of the weakest parts of the economy since the Federal Reserve began tightening monetary policy in 2022.
Residential investment contracted, housing activity slowed, and homebuilder profit margins fell sharply.
Yet desp...
Corporate Profits Doubled. Why Didn’t Household Income Fall?
After-tax corporate profits averaged 5.1% of GDP from 1985 through 1995.
Over the twelve quarters ending in Q2 2026, after-tax corporate profits averaged 11.9% of GDP.
Relative to the size of the economy, the after-tax corporate profit sh...
Prometheus: In Conversation With Eric Basmajian
Last week, I joined Prometheus Research for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy, business cycle, and markets.
Prometheus approaches macro from a systematic perspective, and while our frameworks don’t always lead to the same conclusi...
The AI Boom Isn't an Investment Boom
Everyone is arguing about whether the AI investment boom is a bubble, and the debate is reasonable.
Investment in computer equipment has exploded from 0.5% of GDP to 1.3% in under three years, surpassing even the dot-com peak. It is one o...
Where Do Record Corporate Profits Actually Come From?
Before diving into the post, I wanted to let you know that EPB Research has a free Sunday newsletter.
One email per week with ongoing business cycle education plus live examples of the framework in action. Click the button below to join fo...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Founder of EPB Research, an independent macroeconomic research firm. I study the business cycle through a consistent framework designed to understand where the economy stands, how conditions are changing, and where risks are building.
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