EPB Research
Eric Basmajian, Prometheus ResearchMost economic research tells you what already happened. EPB Research studies the business cycle through its repeatable sequence to identify changes before they become obvious in the headline data.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 74 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 19 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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blog.epbresearch.comLatest Issues
The Economy Can’t Sustain Positive Real Interest Rates Like It Used To
New to EPB Research? Every Sunday, I publish a free research note on where the business cycle stands, what is changing, and whether recession risk is rising or falling.
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Investors often judge...
Housing Has Been Weak for Years. Why Hasn’t It Caused a Recession?
Before you dive into the post, I wanted to let you know that EPB Research offers a 7-day free trial.
EPB Research helps sophisticated investors avoid costly macro-driven portfolio mistakes by separating ordinary economic noise from changes...
Corporate Profits Doubled. Why Didn’t Household Income Fall?
After-tax corporate profits averaged 5.1% of GDP from 1985 through 1995.
Over the twelve quarters ending in Q2 2026, after-tax corporate profits averaged 11.9% of GDP.
Relative to the size of the economy, the after-tax corporate profit sh...
Prometheus: In Conversation With Eric Basmajian
Last week, I joined Prometheus Research for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy, business cycle, and markets.
Prometheus approaches macro from a systematic perspective, and while our frameworks don’t always lead to the same conclusi...
The AI Boom Isn't an Investment Boom
Everyone is arguing about whether the AI investment boom is a bubble, and the debate is reasonable.
Investment in computer equipment has exploded from 0.5% of GDP to 1.3% in under three years, surpassing even the dot-com peak. It is one o...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Founder of EPB Research, an independent macroeconomic research firm. I study the business cycle through a consistent framework designed to understand where the economy stands, how conditions are changing, and where risks are building.
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