Escalation Trap tracks the trajectory of the Iran war in real time, equipping you with frameworks to recognize shifts in escalation, anticipate what comes next, and understand the strategic and economic consequences before they become conventional wisdom.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 278 | Founded | 8 months ago | Last Issue | 31 hours ago |
| Active | |||||
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escalationtrap.substack.comLatest Issues
Is Iran Preparing to Strike First?
Breaking Analysis – October 16, 2026
Tehran expects to be bombed. Washington is reportedly planning to use its biggest bomb. This is how the next war starts.
The War Is Coming Home: Support for Political Violence Has Doubled
In the year America went to war with Iran, support for political violence at home doubled.
That’s the finding of our new CPOST national survey, taken Aug 29-31 2026:
- 16% of American adults, over 40 million people, support President Tr...
Saudi Arabia’s Worst Week Ever
The war has crossed into the Kingdom’s civilian core. One more step would reach your pocket book.
BREAKING ANALYSIS · October 14, 2026
Link for Tonight’s Live Briefing
In 35 Minutes
https://open.substack.com/live-stream/407234?utm_source=live-stream-scheduled-upsell
Harder to Stop Than the Cuban Missile Crisis
The Escalation Trap This Week – Staying Ahead of the Risks
Everyone in the Gulf now fears being hit first, in four places at once
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
I teach at the University of Chicago and study how force is used to achieve political objectives, how escalation unfolds, and how strategies of restraint can succeed or fail in international and American political violence.
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