Escalation Trap tracks the trajectory of the Iran war in real time, equipping you with frameworks to recognize shifts in escalation, anticipate what comes next, and understand the strategic and economic consequences before they become conventional wisdom.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 296 | Founded | 8 months ago | Last Issue | 7 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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The 40-40-20 Exit
The plan to end the Iran war that Washington hasn’t put on the table
When this war began on Feb. 28, the United States held about 60% of the power over the Gulf’s future, by my estimate. Today it holds 40%, and Iran holds 40%. That is what...
Live Briefing Starting at 4pm ET: The Last Clear Chance (your link)
Dear Working Group,
Dear Working Group,
The Last Clear Chance
Today I addressed world leaders at the Vatican and taped a new episode of The Diary of a CEO, one of the world’s leading podcasts. Tonight I go live from London for my paid subscribers, on the one question everyone is asking me: is there st...
This Week’s Briefing Moves to Thursday, Live From London
Dear Escalation Trap Working Group members,
I have to change our plans. The Diary of a CEO has asked me to fly to London today to tape tomorrow, and I said yes. It’s a chance to bring the Escalation Trap to one of the largest audiences in...
Britain Just Told Its People to Stock Up -- What Does London Know That Americans Don’t?
Breaking Analysis – October 28, 2026
Britain has launched its biggest public-preparedness drive since the Cold War. The three-year “Be Ready” campaign asks every household to keep 72 hours of water, food, cash and a wind-up radio. Within d...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
I teach at the University of Chicago and study how force is used to achieve political objectives, how escalation unfolds, and how strategies of restraint can succeed or fail in international and American political violence.
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