In-depth analysis of US economic and Fed news.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 74 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 8 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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ethansharris.substack.comLatest Issues
The Fed’s dovish bias
The Fed’s decision to hold at its latest meeting in the face of strong growth and inflation data is a reminder that this Fed has a dovish bias, putting greater weight on downside risk to growth than on upside risks to inflation.
Ethan on t...
See you in December
I still see the Fed hiking at every other meeting. A hike this week is highly unlikely since the Fed has not prepped the markets. For guidance look to the rest of the committee, not Warsh.
Recent Fed commentary continues to suggest a patte...
The election will play little or no role in the Fed’s October decision
Contrary to popular belief, elections have a marginal impact, at most, on the timing of Fed rate changes. There is no “politically correct” path for the Fed, and moves around elections are common. Whether the Fed hikes this month or not wil...
The Fed in October: trick or treat?
At roughly the mid-point between FOMC meetings, the case for rate hikes is growing, particularly with the pick-up in inflation expectations. However, this FOMC leans dovish and hence I still expect them to skip the October meeting, hiking i...
The Fed is flirting with the third rail of monetary policy
The Fed should not be risking inflation expectations “unanchoring.” I’m encouraged by the renewed focus on that risk and the implied higher rate path.
This is a dangerous time for the Fed. The longer inflation remains above target, the gre...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Former US Chief Economist at Lehman Brothers and Global Head of Economics at Bank of America. Previously, Head of Domestic Research Division at the NY Fed. Ethan holds a Ph.D. from Columbia University and is the author of "Ben Bernanke's Fed."
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