Ethan on the Economy
Ethan S. HarrisIn-depth analysis of US economic and Fed news.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 57 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 9 days ago |
| Active | |||||
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ethansharris.substack.comLatest Issues
The Fed and the trials of Jobs
The July jobs report undercuts Warsh’s core argument for rate cuts. The supply side of the economy is weak, not strong, adding to upside inflation risks. It’s not a slam dunk, but I still expect the majority of the committee to vote for a r...
Warsh’s house of mirrors model
Chair Warsh argues that the Fed will get purer signals from the markets if it doesn’t offer guidance. Critics argue, correctly, that such a policy will increase market volatility. Less recognized is the tiny amount of information that the F...
Now is not the time to panic
The odds of a September rate hike have increased, even with Warsh's commentary.
There is a silver lining in Warsh’s poor performance on Wednesday: it accelerates the shift in power to the rest of the committee that are all willing to give...
GDP takeaway: more bad news for Warsh
The most important news from today’s data was implied softness in productivity, undercutting Warsh’s argument for a benign path to 2% inflation.
Today’s data confirmed expectations. Second quarter GDP growth was 1.5% compared to 2.1% conse...
Today’s Fed easing
There were zero surprises in today’s FOMC decision. They remained on hold—that seemed very likely given the benign “dot plot” from six weeks ago and the soft CPI report. Three members dissented—Logan, Hammack and Kashkari confirmed that the...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Former US Chief Economist at Lehman Brothers and Global Head of Economics at Bank of America. Previously, Head of Domestic Research Division at the NY Fed. Ethan holds a Ph.D. from Columbia University and is the author of "Ben Bernanke's Fed."
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