In-depth analysis of US economic and Fed news.
| Platform |  | Pricing | Freemium | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 70 | Founded | 2 years ago | Last Issue | 39 hours ago |
| Active | |||||
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ethansharris.substack.comLatest Issues
The Fed is flirting with the third rail of monetary policy
The Fed should not be risking inflation expectations “unanchoring.” I’m encouraged by the renewed focus on that risk and the implied higher rate path.
This is a dangerous time for the Fed. The longer inflation remains above target, the gre...
Nobel prize for forward guidance
It is a deep irony that the Nobel prize has gone to two leading proponents of “forward guidance,” in the same year that Warsh tries to end it. I expect Hall and Woodford to win this debate, as the Fed and other central banks continue to off...
Will the Fed skip meetings?
Overall, the data since the FOMC meeting have been a bit softer than expected. This makes a hike less likely in October. I still see three more hikes, but they may choose to hike at every other meeting.
Ethan on the Economy is a reader-sup...
The Fed has more work to do
Monetary policy is still too easy. I expect three more rate hikes by the end of the first quarter, with each meeting “live.”
A common refrain in the business press is that the Fed has turned “hawkish,” by hiking at this month’s meeting and...
The fading “Trump put”
The demise of the “put(s)” is bad news for the economy.
Is there a “Trump put?” Does the President modify or reverse policies when there is a negative response in the economy, public opinion or the equity market? I think the “Trump put” is...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
Former US Chief Economist at Lehman Brothers and Global Head of Economics at Bank of America. Previously, Head of Domestic Research Division at the NY Fed. Ethan holds a Ph.D. from Columbia University and is the author of "Ben Bernanke's Fed."
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