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External Processing

John K. Roman, PhD

Thinking out loud about fear and facts

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Substack
PricingFreemiumPublishesWeekly
Issues77Founded6 years agoLast Issue17 days ago
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Latest Issues

Recent trends in gun violence in America

Gun sales are high, but below long-term trends, firearms homicides are declining, and firearms suicides are increasing

After a chaotic surge in 2020 and 2021, gun homicide in America is plummeting. Data for 2019 to 2025 from the Centers fo...

17 days ago
7
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The Costs and Benefits of Being Wrong

Errors compound and we should take them more seriously

I recently had small children and I read them a lot of small children books. One of my small children was particularly taken with Thomas the Tank Engine and I read my child a lot about...

a month ago
5
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America took a bite out of crime

And rejected the explanation for it..

This month, I’m giving two talks on the ongoing decline in crime. The first is Wednesday, April 15th at 2 PM EST, hosted by the National Prevention Science Coalition, on “The Promise of Prevention to A...

a month ago
12
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Looking for Patterns in Justified Police Homicides

Correlations between justified police homicide and violence trends

Apologies for the slightly delayed delivery, my friends. Today, I am interested in working with some data to think about why justified police homicides go up and down. Typi...

a month ago
7
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The Ingredients of Change

Why policymaking benefits from unpacking how outcomes are produced

Last week, I wrote about causes of effects models, and there is a bit more to say. This is a rich area to explore, and the nuance is what gives it power, and without that n...

2 months ago
2
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  • John K. Roman, PhD

    I write about policy, mainly public safety: what works, what doesn't, and what's promising. Opinions are definitely mine alone.

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