Finance PhD Insights
Finance PhD Having Chien, arthurzllu, Quant Blade如果你喜歡我在粉專 @financephdhavingchien 的內容，這裡你會看到更深入的分析與我不在社群平台上公開的觀點。每週不定期篇幅，幫你建立對金融市場的科普知識，不只是「今天漲跌」，而是「為什麼這樣動」。
| Platform |  | Pricing | Only free issues | Publishes | Daily |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issues | 224 | Founded | a year ago | Last Issue | 4 days ago |
| Active | Language |  Korean | |||
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我們真的了解風險與報酬嗎？
0. 引言
昨天剛上完財務管理第十章，跟學生談的是資本市場歷史帶給投資人的兩個教訓。講完之後，我發現也很適合拿來討論近期的市場狀況。
第一課：承擔風險，則有機會獲得額外的報酬。
第二課：潛在報酬越高，通常也伴隨越大的風險。
這兩句話看起來簡單，卻很容易被理解成：「只要承擔更多風險，就一定能賺得更多。」但這恰好是這章我們需要釐清的誤會。因為預期得到的補償，和最後實際拿到的報酬，中間還存在了一個東西叫：不確定性，也就是風險。
所以這篇文章，我想用台灣的 0050...
電從哪裡來？
0. 引言
最近，我和學生在SMIF的聚會中討論到top-down case study，也就是「由上而下」的投資分析。我選擇用電力基礎建設作為研究主題，並以 GE Vernova（NYSE：GEV）為個股案例，練習把總體趨勢逐步轉換成可以檢驗的投資假設。
這個題目值得討論的原因是它跨越了幾個不同的時間尺度：AI應用可能幾個月就出現重大變化，但發電設備、變電站與輸電線的建設，往往需要多年。當AI需求快速擴張，實體設備能否跟上，就成了值得研究的問題。
不過，從「世...
從財報底層看懂「價值陷阱」
引言：I’m Lovein’ It
在美國只要走進任何一家速食店，大部份的人都可能只覺得這是一頓再日常不過的簡餐；但在華爾街眼裡，這個金色拱門（Golden Arches）過去半個世紀幾乎就是「安全」與「抗通膨」的代名詞。
不論經歷了多少次停滯性通膨、次貸危機、疫情斷鏈，還是地緣政治動盪，麥當勞（NYSE: MCD）始終憑藉著近乎完美的「商業地產＋特許加盟」商業模式、全球四萬多家門市的規模經濟，以及長達數十年連續調高配息的紀錄，始終被法人與存股一族視為了「抗通膨債券...
P/E 與 PEG 的小故事
0. 引言
最近在投資學上到「市場估值」，而教科書最常使用的指標之一，就是P/E ratio（本益比）。
假設一家公司股價是 50 美元，每股盈餘（EPS）是 5 美元，P/E 就是 10 倍。這表示投資人目前願意為公司每一美元的年度盈餘，支付 10 美元。但P/E 不是「幾年回本」的保證：盈餘可能改變，公司也不一定把盈餘全數分給股東。
學到這裡，學生很容易接著問：P/E 越低，是不是越便宜？如果公司成長很快，P/E 高一點是否就合理？要回答這些問題，我們可以從...
《股神的養成》是一本過時的書嗎？
點擊圖片可至博客來購書連結
0.引言：這本書過時了嗎？
這本書寫得其實是巴菲特在1950至1960年代的投資故事。書中有不少公司早就已經消失，而當年的產業環境和現今也很不一樣。所以乍看之下，如果我們用幾十年前的例子學投資，似乎有點過時。
但讀完之後，我的個人的答案是：這並不是一本過時的書，也許投資工具與方法會隨著時代及大環境改變，但投資判斷的基本邏輯卻仍然重要。
今天，我們可以快速取得財報、新聞和產業資訊，但資訊變多，不代表我們判斷起來就變得容易。投資人仍要弄清...
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Authors
The writers behind this newsletter.
CS Ph.D. | Financial Engineering • Portfolio Management • Quant Trading | Writing for a better financial future.
Quant blade uses measurement methods to measure chip surface, fundamentals, technical aspects and other factors, and finds the effective characteristics of factors in the stocks market.
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