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firedog’s Substack

Firedog火狗

My personal Substack

Platform
Substack
PricingOnly free issuesPublishesWeekly
Issues7Founded9 months agoLast Issue19 days ago
Active
Language
Korean

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Latest Issues

x402 是 TCP/IP,Circle 才可能是 Cisco:AI agent 支付,錢最後會流去哪裡?

2026 年 5 月 21 日,Keyrock 聯同 Coinbase、Tempo、Virtuals 發布了一份報告,題目叫《Who Pays the Agent?》。

報告裡有幾個數字很搶眼。

過去十二個月,自主 AI agent 在鏈上完成了 1.76 億筆交易,總結算額約 7,300 萬美元。其中 98.6% 用 USDC 結算。報告的結論很直接:機器對機器支付,已經不再只是概念,而是開始成為一個可觀察的市場。

這對加密市場來說,當然是一個好消息。

問題是,很多...

19 days ago
7

BlackRock 左手買BTC、右手賣

三月的最後一個星期,我盯著螢幕上的鏈上儀表板,看見一組讓我停下來的數據。

BlackRock 旗下的比特幣 ETF,在三月上旬短短兩星期內淨買入超過十億美金的 BTC。整個幣圈 Twitter 炸鍋了——「機構回來了」四個字刷滿時間線。

但僅僅一星期後,同一個 ETF 單日贖回超過兩億美金。

與此同時,鏈上另一組數據顯示,持有超過一萬枚 BTC 的巨鯨地址正在默默增持。

同一個市場、同一段時間、同一種資產——大戶之間卻在做完全相反的事。

這不是矛盾,這是訊號。而讀懂...

2 months ago
12

HY OAS 突破 3.0% 的背後:華爾街正悄悄為 AI 融資斷裂定價

兩週前我在youtube開始看跌美股。今天,市場正在替我驗證。

當時的邏輯很簡單:投資人情緒過熱、基金經理現金水位處於歷史低檔,而私募信貸巨頭 Blue Owl 的違約事件剛剛爆出。我跟一位中資銀行分析師聊起這件事,他一臉不在乎。

那個表情,恰恰反映了當時資本圈的兩個盲點——對科技股金融幻覺的留戀,以及對流動性風險的集體輕視。

第一幕:私募信貸的骨牌正在倒下

Blue Owl 不是孤例。事件迅速蔓延至華爾街最大的幾家資產管理機構:

Blackstone:...

3 months ago
19

0.1到5蚊:一個中環莊家的港版MSTR騙局

Happy 哥是一個股票大老闆,過去5年一直暗地操縱多隻股票,任命老婆兄弟姊妹出任主席,監管機構一直沒有發現他,悶聲發大財。

2024年中,Happy 哥嗅到比特幣勢頭好,想要入局,這是金融大佬與我們的分別,我們都在想買不買比特幣,Happy 哥在想如何炒股票。

因為前車可鑑!老美那隻MSTR用上市公司持幣,上升時既吃到資產升幅,也可以炒股票,還未計當中的投行業務。

但自己畢竟是一介股票佬,搞幣就未免名不正言不順,炒股票最忌概念不純正。

他吩咐手下Johnny仔班馬,...

9 months ago

市場正在對自己說謊 - 從非農看市場脆弱性

我們知道今晚的美國非農就業報告(NFP)很重要,因為聯繫到下月FED降息,綜合所有的觀點,似乎市場有一個簡單的希望:經濟正在放緩,特別是勞動力市場,這給了FED降息的完美理由。

這個故事聽起來很美,對吧?

一個「金髮姑娘」情境:經濟剛好降溫到足以讓FED打開貨幣水龍頭,但又不至於糟糕到引發衰退的恐慌 。

但這個故事存在一個危險的缺陷。

認知與參與

投資者很多時候,會假設市場是一個被動的觀察者,很多人習慣擁有線性構想,幻想溫和疲軟的經濟數據,與資產價格之間可預測...

9 months ago
1

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